The American Athletic race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 3 · 2026
14 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 3; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 South Florida | 1–0 | 2–0 | 6.5–1.5 | 65% | 35% | 15% |
 Florida Atlantic | 1–0 | 1–1 | 2.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Army | 0–1 | 1–1 | 4.8–3.2 | 11% | 4% | 1% |
 Navy | 0–1 | 1–1 | 4.3–3.7 | 8% | 3% | <1% |
 North Texas | 0–0 | 1–1 | 6.5–1.5 | 68% | 41% | 20% |
 UTSA | 0–0 | 2–0 | 4.8–3.2 | 14% | 5% | <1% |
 Tulane | 0–0 | 1–1 | 4.7–3.3 | 14% | 5% | 1% |
 Memphis | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.7–3.3 | 11% | 4% | <1% |
 East Carolina | 0–0 | 0–2 | 4.7–3.3 | 8% | 2% | <1% |
 UAB | 0–0 | 1–1 | 3.3–4.7 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Temple | 0–0 | 1–1 | 3.1–4.9 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Tulsa | 0–0 | 2–0 | 2.8–5.2 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Charlotte | 0–0 | 0–2 | 1.5–6.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Rice | 0–0 | 1–1 | 1.5–6.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.