The Mountain West race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
10 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 11; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 San Diego State | 4–0 | 7–1 | 6.7–1.3 | 71% | 38% | 7% |
 Boise State | 4–1 | 6–3 | 6.1–1.9 | 72% | 40% | 7% |
 Fresno State | 3–2 | 6–3 | 4.9–3.1 | 11% | 4% | <1% |
 New Mexico | 3–2 | 6–3 | 4.8–3.2 | 10% | 3% | <1% |
 Hawai'i | 3–2 | 6–3 | 4.0–4.0 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 UNLV | 2–2 | 6–2 | 5.2–2.8 | 31% | 14% | 1% |
 San José State | 2–2 | 3–5 | 4.1–3.9 | 3% | 1% | <1% |
 Utah State | 2–2 | 4–4 | 3.4–4.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Wyoming | 2–3 | 4–5 | 3.5–4.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Colorado State | 1–3 | 2–6 | 2.0–6.0 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Air Force | 1–4 | 2–6 | 2.3–5.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Nevada | 0–4 | 1–7 | 0.9–7.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.