🏈 Fan Watch

San Diego State Aztecs

7–1 · 4–0 MOUNTAIN WEST
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
The Week 11 recap

San Diego State lost to Hawai'i. Playoff odds moved from 7% to <1%.

Your game

San Diego State at Hawai'i
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TV TBA
Final
San Diego State
Final · San Diego State 6–38 Hawai'iWent the other way ✗
Hawai'i

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result San Diego State wanted
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Impact 1
UNLV
at
Rooted for
Colorado State
Final · UNLV 42–10 Colorado StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 9.2-point title-game boost

UNLV won instead, so San Diego State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection78% if Colorado State won69% with the other result9.2-point differenceSan Diego State MW title-game chance
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Impact 2
James Madison
at
Rooted for
Marshall
Final · James Madison 35–23 MarshallWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.3-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so San Diego State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection9% if Marshall won6% with the other result2.3-point differenceSan Diego State playoff chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
Air Force
at
San José State
Final · Air Force 26–16 San José StateWish granted ✓
Projected 1.9-point title-game boost

San José State lost, improving San Diego State's place in the Mountain West standings.

Entering-week projection72% if Air Force won70% with the other result1.9-point differenceSan Diego State MW title-game chance
47 other games had little impact
Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida · ESPN
Houston at UCF · FS1
Northwestern at USC · FOX
Tulane at Memphis · ESPN
Georgia at Mississippi State · ESPN
Indiana at Penn State · FOX
SMU at Boston College · ACC Network
BYU at Texas Tech · ABC
Colorado at West Virginia · TNT
Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Temple at Army · CBSSN
Ohio State at Purdue · BTN
Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
UAB at Rice · ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers · FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Texas A&M at Missouri · ABC
Oregon at Iowa · CBS
Syracuse at Miami · ESPN
Duke at UConn · CBSSN
Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU · FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin · BTN
Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
California at Louisville · ESPN2
Florida State at Clemson · ACC Network
Wake Forest at Virginia · ESPN
LSU at Alabama · ABC
Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network
Navy at Notre Dame · NBC
Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA · FOX
Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network
The rooting list was:San Diego State, then Colorado State, Marshall, Air Force.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.