The Mountain West race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 1 · 2025
12 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 1; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UNLV | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.2–1.8 | 68% | 44% | 16% |
 #25Boise State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.6–2.4 | 48% | 25% | 10% |
 Fresno State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.3–2.7 | 30% | 13% | 2% |
 San José State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.0–3.0 | 21% | 8% | <1% |
 Air Force | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.2–3.8 | 9% | 3% | <1% |
 Utah State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.9–4.1 | 8% | 3% | <1% |
 Wyoming | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.8–4.2 | 5% | 2% | <1% |
 Colorado State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.4–4.6 | 4% | 1% | <1% |
 San Diego State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.3–4.7 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
 New Mexico | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.1–4.9 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Nevada | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Hawai'i | 0–0 | 0–0 | 1.7–6.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 1). How the model works.