The CFP race

8Clemson0–056%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Miami0–033%

→

1Penn State0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Texas0–0>99%

First round · at the 5 seed

12LSU0–025%

→

4Ohio State0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Oregon0–091%

First round · at the 6 seed

11USC0–023%

→

3Georgia0–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Ole Miss0–087%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Alabama0–047%

→

2Notre Dame0–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#4Clemson0–0 · ACC56%

#8Alabama0–0 · SEC47%

#10Miami0–0 · ACC33%

#9LSU0–0 · SEC25%

USC0–0 · Big Ten23%

#20Indiana0–0 · Big Ten20%

#16SMU0–0 · ACC20%

Tulane0–0 · American Athletic20%

#11Arizona State0–0 · Big 1219%

#14Michigan0–0 · Big Ten19%

TCU0–0 · Big 1218%

UNLV0–0 · Mountain West18%

Jacksonville State0–0 · Conference USA17%

Louisville0–0 · ACC16%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 1).