The CFP race

12 teams with the highest individual playoff chances. This is not a projected field or bracket.

TeamMake CFP

#6Notre Dame0–098%#2Penn State0–098%#5Georgia0–095%#3Ohio State0–093%#1Texas0–088%#7Oregon0–060%#21Ole Miss0–055%#4Clemson0–039%#10Miami0–034%#8Alabama0–034%USC0–027%#14Michigan0–024%

#7Oregon0–0 · Big Ten60%

#21Ole Miss0–0 · SEC55%

#4Clemson0–0 · ACC39%

#10Miami0–0 · ACC34%

#8Alabama0–0 · SEC34%

USC0–0 · Big Ten27%

#14Michigan0–0 · Big Ten24%

#9LSU0–0 · SEC24%

#11Arizona State0–0 · Big 1224%

#16SMU0–0 · ACC23%

#20Indiana0–0 · Big Ten23%

#24Tennessee0–0 · SEC22%

TCU0–0 · Big 1219%

#13South Carolina0–0 · SEC19%

Jacksonville State0–0 · Conference USA18%

Louisville0–0 · ACC17%

Tulane0–0 · American Athletic17%

UNLV0–0 · Mountain West16%

#17Kansas State0–0 · Big 1215%

…

… · ABC

#9LSUat#4Clemson

Final · #9 LSU 17–10 #4 Clemson

…

… · ESPN

#22Iowa Stateat#17Kansas State

Final · #22 Iowa State 24–21 #17 Kansas State

…

… · FOX

#1Texasat#3Ohio State

Final · #1 Texas 7–14 #3 Ohio State

…

… · ABC

#6Notre Dameat#10Miami

Final · #6 Notre Dame 24–27 #10 Miami

…

… · ABC

#8AlabamaatFlorida State

Final · #8 Alabama 17–31 Florida State

…

… · SEC Network

Georgia Stateat#21Ole Miss

Final · Georgia State 7–63 #21 Ole Miss

…

… · ESPN

#25Boise StateatSouth Florida

Final · #25 Boise State 7–34 South Florida

…

… · ESPN

Virginia Techat#13South Carolina

Final · Virginia Tech 11–24 #13 South Carolina

…

… · ESPN+

Jacksonville StateatUCF

Final · Jacksonville State 10–17 UCF

…

… · FS1

Old Dominionat#20Indiana

Final · Old Dominion 14–27 #20 Indiana

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 1). How the model works.