#14Michigan Wolverines
0–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 1 · 2025
14%
Big Ten title game
4%
Win the Big Ten
24%
Make the playoff
3%
First-round bye
avg seed 7.9
How the week went: playoff odds 24% → 24%.
If Michigan wins out: 28% to win the Big Ten, 96% to make the playoff.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Michigan's pathYour game
…
… · NBC
New Mexico at #14 Michigan
Your game. Beat New Mexico and your playoff odds are 25%; lose and they drop to 13%.
Final · New Mexico 17–34 MichiganWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · SEC Network
Georgia State at #21 Ole Miss
Georgia State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · Georgia State 7–63 Ole MissWent the other way ✗
Root for Georgia State+6.4 pp playoff odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · BTN
Ball State at Purdue
Purdue visits your schedule in week 10 — keep them ranked.
Final · Ball State 0–31 PurdueWish granted ✓
Root for Purdue+1.4 pp playoff odds
…
… · FOX
#1 Texas at #3 Ohio State
Ohio State visits your schedule in week 14 — keep them ranked.
Final · Texas 7–14 Ohio StateWish granted ✓
Root for Ohio State+1.3 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
#8 Alabama at Florida State
Florida State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · Alabama 17–31 Florida StateWish granted ✓
Root for Florida State+1.2 pp playoff odds
43 more games that don't move your needle
Virginia Tech at South Carolina · ESPN
Iowa State at Kansas State · ESPN
Fresno State at Kansas · FOX
Sam Houston at Western Kentucky · CBSSN
Stanford at Hawai'i · CBS
Boise State at South Florida · ESPN
Ohio at Rutgers · BTN
East Carolina at NC State · ACC Network
Jacksonville State at UCF · ESPN+
Wyoming at Akron · ESPN+
Buffalo at Minnesota · FS1
Nebraska at Cincinnati · ESPN
Miami (OH) at Wisconsin · BTN
Western Michigan at Michigan State · FS1
Kennesaw State at Wake Forest · ACC Network
App State at Charlotte · ESPNU
Auburn at Baylor · FOX
Georgia Tech at Colorado · ESPN
UNLV at Sam Houston · CBSSN
Central Michigan at San José State · FS1
Mississippi State at Southern Miss · ESPN
Syracuse at Tennessee · ABC
Florida Atlantic at Maryland · BTN
Northwestern at Tulane · ESPNU
Toledo at Kentucky · SEC Network
Old Dominion at Indiana · FS1
Marshall at Georgia · ESPN
Nevada at Penn State · CBS
Temple at Massachusetts · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Virginia · ACC Network
UTSA at Texas A&M · ESPN
LSU at Clemson · ABC
Missouri State at USC · BTN
UTEP at Utah State · CBSSN
Rice at Louisiana · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Texas State · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Fresno State · FS1
California at Oregon State · ESPN
Hawai'i at Arizona · TNT
Utah at UCLA · FOX
Colorado State at Washington · BTN
Notre Dame at Miami · ABC
TCU at North Carolina · ESPN
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 1). How the model works.