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#15Michigan Wolverines

9–2 · 7–1 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 14 · 2025
5%
Big Ten title game
<1%
Win the Big Ten
15%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 8.4
How the week went: playoff odds 15% → 2% · title-game odds 5% → 0%.
Playoff odds by week
1234567891011121314

If Michigan wins out: 4% to win the Big Ten, 52% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Michigan's path
Your game
…
… · FOX
#1 Ohio State at #15 Michigan

Your game. Beat Ohio State and your playoff odds are 52%; lose and they drop to 6%.

Final · Ohio State 27–9 MichiganWent the other way ✗
Just win
Clinch watchan outcome here could settle something for good
…
… · CBS
#6 Oregon at Washington

Oregon winning would end your Big Ten title-game hopes; you beat Washington — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Oregon 26–14 WashingtonWent the other way ✗
Root for Washington+19.7 pp title-game odds
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · NBC
#2 Indiana at Purdue

Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Purdue — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Indiana 56–3 PurdueWent the other way ✗
Root for Purdue+9.4 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN
#9 Notre Dame at Stanford

Stanford winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Notre Dame 49–20 StanfordWent the other way ✗
Root for Stanford+5.0 pp playoff odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ABC
#7 Ole Miss at Mississippi State

Mississippi State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Ole Miss 38–19 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Mississippi State+3.6 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
#10 Alabama at Auburn

Auburn winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Alabama 27–20 AuburnWent the other way ✗
Root for Auburn+3.2 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
LSU at #8 Oklahoma

Oklahoma losing softens the sting of your loss to them.

Final · LSU 13–17 OklahomaWent the other way ✗
Root for LSU+2.6 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN2
UCF at #11 BYU

UCF winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · UCF 21–41 BYUWent the other way ✗
Root for UCF+2.6 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
Virginia Tech at #18 Virginia

Virginia Tech winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Virginia Tech 7–27 VirginiaWent the other way ✗
Root for Virginia Tech+2.3 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
#14 Vanderbilt at #19 Tennessee

Tennessee winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Vanderbilt 45–24 TennesseeWent the other way ✗
Root for Tennessee+1.8 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
#12 Miami at #22 Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Miami 38–7 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Root for Pittsburgh+1.6 pp playoff odds
56 more games that don't move your needle
Texas A&M at Texas · ABC
Bowling Green at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan · ESPN2
Navy at Memphis · ESPN
Iowa at Nebraska · CBS
Utah at Kansas · ESPN
Ohio at Buffalo · ESPNU
Kent State at Northern Illinois · CBSSN
Air Force at Colorado State · FS1
Georgia at Georgia Tech · ABC
San Diego State at New Mexico · CBSSN
Temple at North Texas · ESPN
Boise State at Utah State · CBS
Arizona at Arizona State · FOX
Kentucky at Louisville · ACC Network
Clemson at South Carolina · SEC Network
Houston at Baylor · TNT
Colorado at Kansas State · FS1
Iowa State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Texas Tech at West Virginia · ESPN
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Toledo at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Ball State at Miami (OH) · CBSSN
UTEP at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Marshall · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Arkansas State at App State · ESPN+
Boston College at Syracuse · The CW Network
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State · ESPN+
UL Monroe at Louisiana · ESPN+
South Alabama at Texas State · ESPN+
UAB at Tulsa · ESPN+
Missouri at Arkansas · SEC Network
Wisconsin at Minnesota · FS1
Penn State at Rutgers · BTN
Wake Forest at Duke · ACC Network
Cincinnati at TCU · FOX
Kennesaw State at Liberty · CBSSN
Troy at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Army at UTSA · ESPN+
James Madison at Coastal Carolina · ESPNU
Florida State at Florida · ESPN2
Oregon State at Washington State · The CW Network
Maryland at Michigan State · FS1
Rice at South Florida · ESPN+
UCLA at USC · NBC
Northwestern at Illinois · FOX
North Carolina at NC State · ACC Network
Charlotte at Tulane · ESPNU
SMU at California · ESPN2
UNLV at Nevada · CBSSN
Fresno State at San José State · FS1
Wyoming at Hawai'i

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.