#21Michigan Wolverines
2–1 · 0–0 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2025
15%
Big Ten title game
4%
Win the Big Ten
21%
Make the playoff
3%
First-round bye
avg seed 7.6
How the week went: playoff odds 21% → 17% · title-game odds 15% → 20%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Michigan's pathYour game
…
… · CBS
#21 Michigan at Nebraska
Your game. Beat Nebraska and your playoff odds are 28%; lose and they drop to 12%.
Final · Michigan 30–27 NebraskaWish granted ✓
Just win
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN+
Sam Houston at #8 Texas
Sam Houston winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · Sam Houston 0–55 TexasWent the other way ✗
Root for Sam Houston+3.8 pp playoff odds
…
… · FOX
Michigan State at #25 USC
Big Ten race: USC losing helps your spot in the standings; Michigan State visits your schedule in week 9 — keep them ranked.
Final · Michigan State 31–45 USCWent the other way ✗
Root for Michigan State+3.3 pp title-game odds
47 more games that don't move your needle
Rice at Charlotte · ESPN
Tulsa at Oklahoma State · ESPN
Iowa at Rutgers · FOX
Arkansas at Memphis · ABC
Maryland at Wisconsin · NBC
Syracuse at Clemson · ESPN
SMU at TCU · ESPN
Bowling Green at Louisville · ACC Network
Texas Tech at Utah · FOX
UNLV at Miami (OH) · ESPNU
North Texas at Army · CBSSN
UAB at Tennessee · SEC Network
Oregon State at Oregon · BTN
Tulane at Ole Miss · ESPN
Auburn at Oklahoma · ABC
Purdue at Notre Dame · NBC
Kent State at Florida State · ACC Network
North Carolina at UCF · FOX
Ball State at UConn · CBSSN
James Madison at Liberty · ESPNU
Louisiana at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
Troy at Buffalo · ESPN+
Toledo at Western Michigan · ESPN+
NC State at Duke · ESPN2
Northern Illinois at Mississippi State · SEC Network
Temple at Georgia Tech · The CW Network
West Virginia at Kansas · FS1
Delaware at Florida International · ESPN+
Arkansas State at Kennesaw State · ESPN+
South Carolina at Missouri · ESPN
Marshall at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Nevada at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
Boise State at Air Force · CBSSN
Coastal Carolina at South Alabama · ESPN+
Florida at Miami · ABC
Georgia State at Vanderbilt · ESPNU
Washington at Washington State · CBS
Illinois at Indiana · NBC
Stanford at Virginia · ACC Network
Arizona State at Baylor · FOX
BYU at East Carolina · ESPN2
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+
UL Monroe at UTEP · ESPN+
UTSA at Colorado State · FS1
Wyoming at Colorado · ESPN
California at San Diego State · CBSSN
Fresno State at Hawai'i
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.