The Big Ten race
18 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2025
15 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 4; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #6Oregon | 1–0 | 3–0 | 6.9–2.1 | 37% | 15% | 81% |
 #25USC | 1–0 | 3–0 | 6.8–2.2 | 17% | 5% | 19% |
 Northwestern | 0–1 | 1–2 | 2.1–6.9 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Purdue | 0–1 | 2–1 | 1.0–8.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 #2Penn State | 0–0 | 3–0 | 7.9–1.1 | 71% | 53% | >99% |
 #1Ohio State | 0–0 | 3–0 | 7.3–1.7 | 40% | 18% | 97% |
 #21Michigan | 0–0 | 2–1 | 6.6–2.4 | 15% | 4% | 21% |
 #19Indiana | 0–0 | 3–0 | 6.5–2.5 | 11% | 4% | 25% |
 #9Illinois | 0–0 | 3–0 | 5.2–3.8 | 3% | <1% | 23% |
 Nebraska | 0–0 | 3–0 | 5.3–3.7 | 3% | <1% | 6% |
 Iowa | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.2–4.8 | 2% | <1% | 6% |
 Washington | 0–0 | 2–0 | 4.1–4.9 | <1% | <1% | 1% |
 Minnesota | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.5–4.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Rutgers | 0–0 | 3–0 | 3.2–5.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Maryland | 0–0 | 3–0 | 3.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Wisconsin | 0–0 | 2–1 | 3.0–6.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Michigan State | 0–0 | 3–0 | 1.7–7.3 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 UCLA | 0–0 | 0–3 | 1.4–7.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.