The Mid-American race
13 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2025
13 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 4; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Buffalo | 1–0 | 2–1 | 5.5–2.5 | 22% | 7% | <1% |
 Kent State | 0–1 | 1–2 | 1.6–6.4 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Ohio | 0–0 | 1–2 | 6.5–1.5 | 65% | 43% | 8% |
 Toledo | 0–0 | 2–1 | 6.1–1.9 | 37% | 18% | 1% |
 Bowling Green | 0–0 | 2–1 | 5.8–2.2 | 32% | 14% | <1% |
 Northern Illinois | 0–0 | 1–1 | 5.5–2.5 | 22% | 10% | <1% |
 Miami (OH) | 0–0 | 0–2 | 4.9–3.1 | 18% | 7% | <1% |
 Western Michigan | 0–0 | 0–3 | 3.5–4.5 | 2% | <1% | 0% |
 Eastern Michigan | 0–0 | 0–3 | 2.9–5.1 | 1% | <1% | 0% |
 Central Michigan | 0–0 | 1–2 | 2.8–5.2 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Massachusetts | 0–0 | 0–3 | 2.1–5.9 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Akron | 0–0 | 0–3 | 2.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Ball State | 0–0 | 1–2 | 2.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.