The SEC race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2025
16 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 4; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #5Georgia | 1–0 | 3–0 | 6.9–1.1 | 75% | 52% | 91% |
 #13Ole Miss | 2–0 | 3–0 | 6.3–1.7 | 36% | 15% | 46% |
 #3LSU | 1–0 | 3–0 | 4.3–3.7 | 5% | 1% | 53% |
 #20Vanderbilt | 1–0 | 3–0 | 3.7–4.3 | 2% | <1% | 4% |
 #15Tennessee | 0–1 | 2–1 | 4.6–3.4 | 5% | 1% | 20% |
 Arkansas | 0–1 | 2–1 | 3.2–4.8 | <1% | <1% | 4% |
 Florida | 0–1 | 1–2 | 2.6–5.4 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
 South Carolina | 0–1 | 2–1 | 2.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
 Kentucky | 0–1 | 2–1 | 1.8–6.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 #14Alabama | 0–0 | 2–1 | 5.7–2.3 | 37% | 17% | 44% |
 #8Texas | 0–0 | 2–1 | 5.7–2.3 | 22% | 8% | 58% |
 #23Missouri | 0–0 | 3–0 | 4.5–3.5 | 6% | 2% | 10% |
 #10Texas A&M | 0–0 | 3–0 | 4.5–3.5 | 5% | 1% | 26% |
 #11Oklahoma | 0–0 | 3–0 | 3.6–4.4 | 4% | 1% | 22% |
 #22Auburn | 0–0 | 3–0 | 3.2–4.8 | 2% | <1% | 5% |
 Mississippi State | 0–0 | 3–0 | 1.0–7.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.