#8Texas Longhorns
2–1 · 0–0 SEC
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2025
22%
SEC title game
8%
Win the SEC
58%
Make the playoff
15%
First-round bye
avg seed 6.4
How the week went: playoff odds 58% → 60% · title-game odds 22% → 37%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Texas's pathYour game
…
… · ESPN+
Sam Houston at #8 Texas
Your game. Beat Sam Houston and your playoff odds are 58%; lose and they drop to 41%.
Final · Sam Houston 0–55 TexasWish granted ✓
Just win
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ABC
Florida at #4 Miami
Florida visits your schedule in week 6 — keep them ranked.
Final · Florida 7–26 MiamiWent the other way ✗
Root for Florida+1.8 pp playoff odds
…
… · CBSSN
Boise State at Air Force
Air Force winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · Boise State 49–37 Air ForceWent the other way ✗
Root for Air Force+1.3 pp playoff odds
47 more games that don't move your needle
Rice at Charlotte · ESPN
Tulsa at Oklahoma State · ESPN
Iowa at Rutgers · FOX
Arkansas at Memphis · ABC
Maryland at Wisconsin · NBC
Syracuse at Clemson · ESPN
SMU at TCU · ESPN
Bowling Green at Louisville · ACC Network
Texas Tech at Utah · FOX
UNLV at Miami (OH) · ESPNU
North Texas at Army · CBSSN
UAB at Tennessee · SEC Network
Oregon State at Oregon · BTN
Tulane at Ole Miss · ESPN
Auburn at Oklahoma · ABC
Michigan at Nebraska · CBS
Purdue at Notre Dame · NBC
Kent State at Florida State · ACC Network
North Carolina at UCF · FOX
Ball State at UConn · CBSSN
James Madison at Liberty · ESPNU
Louisiana at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
Troy at Buffalo · ESPN+
Toledo at Western Michigan · ESPN+
NC State at Duke · ESPN2
Northern Illinois at Mississippi State · SEC Network
Temple at Georgia Tech · The CW Network
West Virginia at Kansas · FS1
Delaware at Florida International · ESPN+
Arkansas State at Kennesaw State · ESPN+
South Carolina at Missouri · ESPN
Marshall at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Nevada at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at South Alabama · ESPN+
Georgia State at Vanderbilt · ESPNU
Washington at Washington State · CBS
Illinois at Indiana · NBC
Stanford at Virginia · ACC Network
Arizona State at Baylor · FOX
BYU at East Carolina · ESPN2
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+
UL Monroe at UTEP · ESPN+
UTSA at Colorado State · FS1
Wyoming at Colorado · ESPN
California at San Diego State · CBSSN
Michigan State at USC · FOX
Fresno State at Hawai'i
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.