#1Texas Longhorns
0–0 · 0–0 SEC
In the books
WEEK 1 · 2025
23%
SEC title game
9%
Win the SEC
>99%
Make the playoff
45%
First-round bye
avg seed 4.3
How the week went: playoff odds >99% → 91%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Texas's pathYour game
…
… · FOX
#1 Texas at #3 Ohio State
Your game. You're essentially in — this is about seeding: win and you're looking at roughly the 4th seed, lose and it's closer to the 5th.
Final · Texas 7–14 Ohio StateWent the other way ✗
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN
Marshall at #5 Georgia
You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Marshall winning protects it; you still play Georgia in week 12.
Final · Marshall 7–45 GeorgiaWent the other way ✗
Root for Marshall+9.7 pp first-round-bye odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ABC
#6 Notre Dame at #10 Miami
You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Miami winning protects it.
Final · Notre Dame 24–27 MiamiWish granted ✓
Root for Miami+4.7 pp first-round-bye odds
45 more games that don't move your needle
Iowa State at Kansas State · ESPN
Fresno State at Kansas · FOX
Sam Houston at Western Kentucky · CBSSN
Stanford at Hawai'i · CBS
Boise State at South Florida · ESPN
Ohio at Rutgers · BTN
East Carolina at NC State · ACC Network
Jacksonville State at UCF · ESPN+
Wyoming at Akron · ESPN+
Buffalo at Minnesota · FS1
Nebraska at Cincinnati · ESPN
Miami (OH) at Wisconsin · BTN
Western Michigan at Michigan State · FS1
Kennesaw State at Wake Forest · ACC Network
App State at Charlotte · ESPNU
Auburn at Baylor · FOX
Georgia Tech at Colorado · ESPN
UNLV at Sam Houston · CBSSN
Central Michigan at San José State · FS1
Mississippi State at Southern Miss · ESPN
Syracuse at Tennessee · ABC
Florida Atlantic at Maryland · BTN
Ball State at Purdue · BTN
Northwestern at Tulane · ESPNU
Toledo at Kentucky · SEC Network
Old Dominion at Indiana · FS1
Alabama at Florida State · ABC
Nevada at Penn State · CBS
Temple at Massachusetts · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Virginia · ACC Network
UTSA at Texas A&M · ESPN
LSU at Clemson · ABC
Missouri State at USC · BTN
New Mexico at Michigan · NBC
UTEP at Utah State · CBSSN
Georgia State at Ole Miss · SEC Network
Rice at Louisiana · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Texas State · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Fresno State · FS1
California at Oregon State · ESPN
Hawai'i at Arizona · TNT
Utah at UCLA · FOX
Colorado State at Washington · BTN
Virginia Tech at South Carolina · ESPN
TCU at North Carolina · ESPN
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 1).