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#7Texas Longhorns

1–1 · 0–0 SEC
In the books
WEEK 3 · 2025
25%
SEC title game
10%
Win the SEC
68%
Make the playoff
17%
First-round bye
avg seed 6.4
How the week went: playoff odds 68% → 58% · title-game odds 25% → 22%.
Playoff odds by week
123

If Texas wins out: 47% to win the SEC, >99% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Texas's path
Your game
…
… · SEC Network
UTEP at #7 Texas

Your game. Beat UTEP and your playoff odds are 69%; lose and they drop to 53%.

Final · UTEP 10–27 TexasWish granted ✓
Just win
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN
Arkansas at #17 Ole Miss

SEC race: Ole Miss losing helps your spot in the standings; Arkansas visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Final · Arkansas 35–41 Ole MissWent the other way ✗
Root for Arkansas+7.0 pp title-game odds
…
… · ABC
Florida at #3 LSU

Florida visits your schedule in week 6 — keep them ranked.

Final · Florida 10–20 LSUWent the other way ✗
Root for Florida+2.1 pp playoff odds
…
… · NBC
#16 Texas A&M at #8 Notre Dame

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Texas A&M winning protects it; Texas A&M visits your schedule in week 14 — keep them ranked.

Final · Texas A&M 41–40 Notre DameWish granted ✓
Root for Texas A&M+3.7 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · ABC
#6 Georgia at #15 Tennessee

Georgia visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.

Final · Georgia 44–41 TennesseeWish granted ✓
Root for Georgia+1.7 pp playoff odds
…
… · SEC Network
Vanderbilt at #11 South Carolina

SEC race: South Carolina losing helps your spot in the standings; Vanderbilt visits your schedule in week 10 — keep them ranked.

Final · Vanderbilt 31–7 South CarolinaWish granted ✓
Root for Vanderbilt+2.2 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN
NC State at Wake Forest

Wake Forest winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · NC State 34–24 Wake ForestWent the other way ✗
Root for Wake Forest+1.3 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
#12 Clemson at Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Clemson 21–24 Georgia TechWish granted ✓
Root for Georgia Tech+1.2 pp playoff odds
39 more games that don't move your needle
Wisconsin at Alabama · ABC
South Florida at Miami · The CW Network
Colorado at Houston · ESPN
Kansas State at Arizona · FOX
New Mexico at UCLA · BTN
Oklahoma at Temple · ESPN2
Oregon at Northwestern · FOX
Central Michigan at Michigan · BTN
Memphis at Troy · ESPNU
Buffalo at Kent State · CBSSN
South Alabama at Auburn · SEC Network
Louisiana at Missouri · ESPN+
UConn at Delaware · ESPN+
USC at Purdue · CBS
Oregon State at Texas Tech · FOX
Washington State at North Texas · ESPNU
SMU at Missouri State · CBSSN
Pittsburgh at West Virginia · ESPN
Iowa State at Arkansas State · ESPN2
Liberty at Bowling Green · ESPN+
Middle Tennessee at Nevada
Florida Atlantic at Florida International · ESPN+
Ohio at Ohio State · Peacock
Western Michigan at Illinois · FS1
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech · ACC Network
Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
App State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Kentucky · ESPNU
Massachusetts at Iowa · BTN
New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+
East Carolina at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Duke at Tulane · ESPN2
Utah at Wyoming · CBSSN
Navy at Tulsa · ESPN+
Akron at UAB · ESPN+
Air Force at Utah State · FS1
Minnesota at California · ESPN
Boston College at Stanford · ACC Network
Texas State at Arizona State · TNT

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.