#10Texas Longhorns

7–2 · 4–1 SEC

In the books

WEEK 12 · 2025

The Week 12 recap

Texas lost to Georgia. Playoff odds moved from 48% to 11%.

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ABC

Final

Texas

Final · Texas 10–35 GeorgiaWent the other way ✗

Georgia

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ESPN

Impact 1

Rooted for

South Carolina

at

Texas A&M

Final · South Carolina 30–31 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗

Projected 10.9-point title-game boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection18% if South Carolina won7% with the other result11-point differenceTexas SEC title-game chance

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ESPN

Impact 2

Rooted for

Florida

at

Ole Miss

Final · Florida 24–34 Ole MissWent the other way ✗

Projected 10.2-point title-game boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection18% if Florida won8% with the other result10-point differenceTexas SEC title-game chance

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ABC

Impact 3

Notre Dame

at

Rooted for

Pittsburgh

Final · Notre Dame 37–15 PittsburghWent the other way ✗

Projected 5.8-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection54% if Pittsburgh won48% with the other result5.8-point differenceTexas playoff chance

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ABC

Impact 4

Rooted for

Oklahoma

at

Alabama

Final · Oklahoma 23–21 AlabamaWish granted ✓

Projected 6.8-point title-game boost

Alabama lost, improving Texas's place in the SEC standings.

Entering-week projection14% if Oklahoma won7% with the other result6.8-point differenceTexas SEC title-game chance

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ESPN2

Impact 5

Utah

at

Rooted for

Baylor

Final · Utah 55–28 BaylorWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.3-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection51% if Baylor won48% with the other result3.3-point differenceTexas playoff chance

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SEC Network

Impact 6

Rooted for

Arkansas

at

LSU

Final · Arkansas 22–23 LSUWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.1-point playoff boost

LSU won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection51% if Arkansas won47% with the other result3.1-point differenceTexas playoff chance

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ESPN2

Impact 7

Virginia

at

Rooted for

Duke

Final · Virginia 34–17 DukeWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Virginia won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection49% if Duke won47% with the other result1.3-point differenceTexas playoff chance

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ESPN

Impact 8

Rooted for

TCU

at

BYU

Final · TCU 13–44 BYUWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

BYU won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection49% if TCU won48% with the other result1.2-point differenceTexas playoff chance

49 other games had little impact

Kent State at Akron · ESPNU

Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2

Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN

Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU

Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2

Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN

Clemson at Louisville · ESPN

Minnesota at Oregon · FOX

Wisconsin at Indiana · BTN

Michigan at Northwestern · FOX

Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1

Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU

Air Force at UConn · CBSSN

UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+

South Florida at Navy · ESPN2

Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+

Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network

West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV

Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+

North Texas at UAB · ESPN+

UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+

Colorado State at New Mexico

Penn State at Michigan State · CBS

Maryland at Illinois · FS1

Iowa at USC · BTN

Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network

NC State at Miami · ESPN

UCF at Texas Tech · FOX

Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+

San José State at Nevada · CBSSN

App State at James Madison · ESPN+

South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+

Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+

Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU

Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+

New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network

North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network

Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+

Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+

Purdue at Washington · FS1

Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+

Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN

UCLA at Ohio State · NBC

Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network

Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network

Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU

Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network

Boise State at San Diego State · CBSSN

Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.