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#10Texas Longhorns

7–2 · 4–1 SEC
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
9%
SEC title game
4%
Win the SEC
48%
Make the playoff
8%
First-round bye
avg seed 7.1
How the week went: playoff odds 48% → 11% · title-game odds 9% → 0%.
Playoff odds by week
123456789101112

If Texas wins out: 24% to win the SEC, 92% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Texas's path
Your game
…
… · ABC
#10 Texas at #5 Georgia

Your game. Beat Georgia and your playoff odds are 75%; lose and they drop to 38%.

Final · Texas 10–35 GeorgiaWent the other way ✗
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN
South Carolina at #3 Texas A&M

SEC race: Texas A&M losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play Texas A&M in week 14.

Final · South Carolina 30–31 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗
Root for South Carolina+10.9 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN
Florida at #7 Ole Miss

SEC race: Ole Miss losing helps your spot in the standings.

Final · Florida 24–34 Ole MissWent the other way ✗
Root for Florida+10.2 pp title-game odds
…
… · ABC
#9 Notre Dame at #22 Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Notre Dame 37–15 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Root for Pittsburgh+5.8 pp playoff odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ABC
#11 Oklahoma at #4 Alabama

SEC race: Alabama losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Oklahoma — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Oklahoma 23–21 AlabamaWish granted ✓
Root for Oklahoma+6.8 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN2
#13 Utah at Baylor

Baylor winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Utah 55–28 BaylorWent the other way ✗
Root for Baylor+3.3 pp playoff odds
…
… · SEC Network
Arkansas at LSU

Arkansas visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Final · Arkansas 22–23 LSUWent the other way ✗
Root for Arkansas+3.1 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN2
#19 Virginia at Duke

Duke winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Virginia 34–17 DukeWent the other way ✗
Root for Duke+1.3 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
TCU at #12 BYU

TCU winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · TCU 13–44 BYUWent the other way ✗
Root for TCU+1.2 pp playoff odds
49 more games that don't move your needle
Kent State at Akron · ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN
Clemson at Louisville · ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon · FOX
Wisconsin at Indiana · BTN
Michigan at Northwestern · FOX
Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Air Force at UConn · CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+
South Florida at Navy · ESPN2
Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+
Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV
Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+
North Texas at UAB · ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Penn State at Michigan State · CBS
Maryland at Illinois · FS1
Iowa at USC · BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network
NC State at Miami · ESPN
UCF at Texas Tech · FOX
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
San José State at Nevada · CBSSN
App State at James Madison · ESPN+
South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Purdue at Washington · FS1
Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN
UCLA at Ohio State · NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network
Boise State at San Diego State · CBSSN
Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.