🏈 Fan Watch

#16Texas Longhorns

8–3 · 5–2 SEC
In the books
WEEK 14 · 2025
The Week 14 recap

Texas beat Texas A&M. Playoff odds moved from 20% to 39%.

The model sees the SEC title as an extreme long shot, so the likelier playoff path is an at-large bid.

Your game

Texas A&M at Texas
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ABC
Final
Texas A&M
Final · Texas A&M 17–27 TexasWish granted ✓
Texas

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Texas wanted
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ABC
Impact 1
Alabama
at
Rooted for
Auburn
Final · Alabama 27–20 AuburnWent the other way ✗
Projected 4.4-point playoff boost

Alabama won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection23% if Auburn won19% with the other result4.4-point differenceTexas playoff chance
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CBS
Impact 2
Oregon
at
Rooted for
Washington
Final · Oregon 26–14 WashingtonWent the other way ✗
Projected 4.3-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection23% if Washington won19% with the other result4.3-point differenceTexas playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 3
Rooted for
LSU
at
Oklahoma
Final · LSU 13–17 OklahomaWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.9-point playoff boost

Oklahoma won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection23% if LSU won19% with the other result3.9-point differenceTexas playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 4
Ole Miss
at
Rooted for
Mississippi State
Final · Ole Miss 38–19 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.9-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection23% if Mississippi State won19% with the other result3.9-point differenceTexas playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 5
Vanderbilt
at
Rooted for
Tennessee
Final · Vanderbilt 45–24 TennesseeWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.9-point playoff boost

Vanderbilt won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection21% if Tennessee won18% with the other result2.9-point differenceTexas playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 6
Miami
at
Rooted for
Pittsburgh
Final · Miami 38–7 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.6-point playoff boost

Miami won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection21% if Pittsburgh won19% with the other result2.6-point differenceTexas playoff chance
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FOX
Impact 7
Rooted for
Ohio State
at
Michigan
Final · Ohio State 27–9 MichiganWish granted ✓
Projected 2.5-point playoff boost

Ohio State won, thinning out the at-large competition for Texas's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection20% if Ohio State won18% with the other result2.5-point differenceTexas playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 8
Rooted for
Virginia Tech
at
Virginia
Final · Virginia Tech 7–27 VirginiaWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.5-point playoff boost

Virginia won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection22% if Virginia Tech won19% with the other result2.5-point differenceTexas playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 9
Rooted for
UCF
at
BYU
Final · UCF 21–41 BYUWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

BYU won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection22% if UCF won19% with the other result2.4-point differenceTexas playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 10
Utah
at
Rooted for
Kansas
Final · Utah 31–21 KansasWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection21% if Kansas won19% with the other result2.1-point differenceTexas playoff chance
56 other games had little impact
Bowling Green at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan · ESPN2
Navy at Memphis · ESPN
Iowa at Nebraska · CBS
Ohio at Buffalo · ESPNU
Kent State at Northern Illinois · CBSSN
Air Force at Colorado State · FS1
Georgia at Georgia Tech · ABC
San Diego State at New Mexico · CBSSN
Temple at North Texas · ESPN
Boise State at Utah State · CBS
Indiana at Purdue · NBC
Arizona at Arizona State · FOX
Kentucky at Louisville · ACC Network
Clemson at South Carolina · SEC Network
Houston at Baylor · TNT
Colorado at Kansas State · FS1
Iowa State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Texas Tech at West Virginia · ESPN
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Toledo at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Ball State at Miami (OH) · CBSSN
UTEP at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Marshall · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Arkansas State at App State · ESPN+
Boston College at Syracuse · The CW Network
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State · ESPN+
UL Monroe at Louisiana · ESPN+
South Alabama at Texas State · ESPN+
UAB at Tulsa · ESPN+
Missouri at Arkansas · SEC Network
Wisconsin at Minnesota · FS1
Penn State at Rutgers · BTN
Wake Forest at Duke · ACC Network
Cincinnati at TCU · FOX
Kennesaw State at Liberty · CBSSN
Troy at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Army at UTSA · ESPN+
James Madison at Coastal Carolina · ESPNU
Florida State at Florida · ESPN2
Oregon State at Washington State · The CW Network
Maryland at Michigan State · FS1
Rice at South Florida · ESPN+
UCLA at USC · NBC
Northwestern at Illinois · FOX
North Carolina at NC State · ACC Network
Charlotte at Tulane · ESPNU
SMU at California · ESPN2
UNLV at Nevada · CBSSN
Notre Dame at Stanford · ESPN
Fresno State at San José State · FS1
Wyoming at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Texas, then Auburn, Washington, LSU, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, UCF, Kansas.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.