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#16Texas Longhorns

8–3 · 5–2 SEC
In the books
WEEK 14 · 2025
0%
SEC title game
0%
Win the SEC
20%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 8.7
The SEC title is out of reach — the playoff path runs through an at-large bid.
How the week went: playoff odds 20% → 39%.
Playoff odds by week
1234567891011121314

If Texas wins out: 0% to win the SEC, 32% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Texas's path
Your game
…
… · ABC
#3 Texas A&M at #16 Texas

Your game. Beat Texas A&M and your playoff odds are 32%; lose and they drop to 2%.

Final · Texas A&M 17–27 TexasWish granted ✓
Just win
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ABC
#10 Alabama at Auburn

Auburn winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Alabama 27–20 AuburnWent the other way ✗
Root for Auburn+4.4 pp playoff odds
…
… · CBS
#6 Oregon at Washington

Washington winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Oregon 26–14 WashingtonWent the other way ✗
Root for Washington+4.3 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
LSU at #8 Oklahoma

You already beat Oklahoma; them losing again keeps them behind you.

Final · LSU 13–17 OklahomaWent the other way ✗
Root for LSU+3.9 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
#7 Ole Miss at Mississippi State

You beat Mississippi State — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Ole Miss 38–19 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Mississippi State+3.9 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
#14 Vanderbilt at #19 Tennessee

You already beat Vanderbilt; them losing again keeps them behind you.

Final · Vanderbilt 45–24 TennesseeWent the other way ✗
Root for Tennessee+2.9 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
#12 Miami at #22 Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Miami 38–7 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Root for Pittsburgh+2.6 pp playoff odds
…
… · FOX
#1 Ohio State at #15 Michigan

Ohio State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Ohio State 27–9 MichiganWish granted ✓
Root for Ohio State+2.5 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
Virginia Tech at #18 Virginia

Virginia Tech winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Virginia Tech 7–27 VirginiaWent the other way ✗
Root for Virginia Tech+2.5 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN2
UCF at #11 BYU

UCF winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · UCF 21–41 BYUWent the other way ✗
Root for UCF+2.4 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
#13 Utah at Kansas

Kansas winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Utah 31–21 KansasWent the other way ✗
Root for Kansas+2.1 pp playoff odds
56 more games that don't move your needle
Bowling Green at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan · ESPN2
Navy at Memphis · ESPN
Iowa at Nebraska · CBS
Ohio at Buffalo · ESPNU
Kent State at Northern Illinois · CBSSN
Air Force at Colorado State · FS1
Georgia at Georgia Tech · ABC
San Diego State at New Mexico · CBSSN
Temple at North Texas · ESPN
Boise State at Utah State · CBS
Indiana at Purdue · NBC
Arizona at Arizona State · FOX
Kentucky at Louisville · ACC Network
Clemson at South Carolina · SEC Network
Houston at Baylor · TNT
Colorado at Kansas State · FS1
Iowa State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Texas Tech at West Virginia · ESPN
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Toledo at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Ball State at Miami (OH) · CBSSN
UTEP at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Marshall · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Arkansas State at App State · ESPN+
Boston College at Syracuse · The CW Network
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State · ESPN+
UL Monroe at Louisiana · ESPN+
South Alabama at Texas State · ESPN+
UAB at Tulsa · ESPN+
Missouri at Arkansas · SEC Network
Wisconsin at Minnesota · FS1
Penn State at Rutgers · BTN
Wake Forest at Duke · ACC Network
Cincinnati at TCU · FOX
Kennesaw State at Liberty · CBSSN
Troy at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Army at UTSA · ESPN+
James Madison at Coastal Carolina · ESPNU
Florida State at Florida · ESPN2
Oregon State at Washington State · The CW Network
Maryland at Michigan State · FS1
Rice at South Florida · ESPN+
UCLA at USC · NBC
Northwestern at Illinois · FOX
North Carolina at NC State · ACC Network
Charlotte at Tulane · ESPNU
SMU at California · ESPN2
UNLV at Nevada · CBSSN
Notre Dame at Stanford · ESPN
Fresno State at San José State · FS1
Wyoming at Hawai'i

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.