#11Texas Longhorns
7–2 · 4–1 SEC
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
14%
SEC title game
7%
Win the SEC
41%
Make the playoff
6%
First-round bye
avg seed 7.4
How the week went: playoff odds 41% → 48% · title-game odds 14% → 9%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Texas's pathBig swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · NBC
Navy at #10 Notre Dame
Navy winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · Navy 10–49 Notre DameWent the other way ✗
Root for Navy+6.6 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
#3 Texas A&M at #22 Missouri
SEC race: Texas A&M losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play Texas A&M in week 14.
Final · Texas A&M 38–17 MissouriWent the other way ✗
Root for Missouri+9.0 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ABC
LSU at #4 Alabama
LSU winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · LSU 9–20 AlabamaWent the other way ✗
Root for LSU+1.9 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
#5 Georgia at Mississippi State
SEC race: Georgia losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Mississippi State — their wins make your résumé stronger; you still play Georgia in week 12.
Final · Georgia 41–21 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Mississippi State+2.4 pp title-game odds
…
… · FS1
Houston at UCF
Houston winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · Houston 30–27 UCFWish granted ✓
Root for Houston+1.2 pp playoff odds
46 more games that don't move your needle
Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida · ESPN
Northwestern at USC · FOX
Tulane at Memphis · ESPN
Indiana at Penn State · FOX
SMU at Boston College · ACC Network
BYU at Texas Tech · ABC
Colorado at West Virginia · TNT
James Madison at Marshall · ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Temple at Army · CBSSN
Ohio State at Purdue · BTN
Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
UAB at Rice · ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers · FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Oregon at Iowa · CBS
Syracuse at Miami · ESPN
Duke at UConn · CBSSN
Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU · FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin · BTN
Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Air Force at San José State · FS1
California at Louisville · ESPN2
Florida State at Clemson · ACC Network
Wake Forest at Virginia · ESPN
Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network
Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA · FOX
UNLV at Colorado State · FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.