The SEC race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
6 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 12; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #4Alabama | 6–0 | 8–1 | 7.6–0.4 | 92% | 46% | 87% |
 #3Texas A&M | 6–0 | 9–0 | 7.2–0.8 | 36% | 14% | 96% |
 #5Georgia | 6–1 | 8–1 | 6.7–1.3 | 52% | 30% | 82% |
 #7Ole Miss | 5–1 | 9–1 | 6.8–1.2 | 11% | 6% | 74% |
 #10Texas | 4–1 | 7–2 | 5.8–2.2 | 9% | 4% | 48% |
 #14Vanderbilt | 4–2 | 8–2 | 5.1–2.9 | 0% | 0% | 27% |
 #11Oklahoma | 3–2 | 7–2 | 4.6–3.4 | <1% | <1% | 39% |
 #23Tennessee | 3–3 | 6–3 | 4.4–3.6 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
 Missouri | 2–3 | 6–3 | 3.7–4.3 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Florida | 2–4 | 3–6 | 2.3–5.7 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 LSU | 2–4 | 5–4 | 3.0–5.0 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Kentucky | 2–5 | 4–5 | 2.2–5.8 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Mississippi State | 1–5 | 5–5 | 1.3–6.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Auburn | 1–6 | 4–6 | 1.2–6.8 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 South Carolina | 1–6 | 3–6 | 1.1–6.9 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Arkansas | 0–5 | 2–7 | 0.8–7.2 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.