The SEC race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
10 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 10; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #4Alabama | 5–0 | 7–1 | 7.5–0.5 | 90% | 45% | 90% |
 #3Texas A&M | 5–0 | 8–0 | 6.6–1.4 | 27% | 10% | 88% |
 #5Georgia | 4–1 | 6–1 | 6.6–1.4 | 55% | 33% | 90% |
 #7Ole Miss | 4–1 | 7–1 | 6.7–1.3 | 13% | 6% | 79% |
 #20Texas | 3–1 | 6–2 | 5.6–2.4 | 11% | 5% | 12% |
 #9Vanderbilt | 3–1 | 7–1 | 5.1–2.9 | 2% | <1% | 37% |
 #14Tennessee | 3–2 | 6–2 | 5.0–3.0 | <1% | <1% | 29% |
 #18Oklahoma | 2–2 | 6–2 | 3.8–4.2 | <1% | <1% | 9% |
 #19Missouri | 2–2 | 6–2 | 4.4–3.6 | <1% | <1% | 9% |
 Florida | 2–2 | 3–4 | 3.1–4.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 LSU | 2–3 | 5–3 | 3.1–4.9 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Auburn | 1–4 | 4–4 | 2.4–5.6 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 South Carolina | 1–5 | 3–5 | 1.3–6.7 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Arkansas | 0–4 | 2–6 | 1.5–6.5 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Kentucky | 0–5 | 2–5 | 0.8–7.2 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Mississippi State | 0–4 | 4–4 | 0.6–7.4 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.