The Conference USA race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
11 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 10; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville State | 3–0 | 4–3 | 7.0–1.0 | 86% | 59% | 1% |
 Kennesaw State | 3–0 | 5–2 | 5.5–2.5 | 37% | 13% | <1% |
 Western Kentucky | 4–1 | 6–2 | 5.7–2.3 | 27% | 9% | <1% |
 Liberty | 2–1 | 3–4 | 5.0–3.0 | 25% | 10% | <1% |
 Missouri State | 2–1 | 4–3 | 4.6–3.4 | 10% | 3% | <1% |
 Delaware | 2–2 | 4–3 | 4.9–3.1 | 10% | 5% | <1% |
 Louisiana Tech | 2–2 | 4–3 | 4.1–3.9 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Florida International | 1–2 | 3–4 | 3.0–5.0 | 1% | <1% | 0% |
 UTEP | 1–2 | 2–5 | 2.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 New Mexico State | 1–3 | 3–4 | 2.7–5.3 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Middle Tennessee | 0–3 | 1–6 | 1.9–6.1 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Sam Houston | 0–4 | 0–7 | 1.0–7.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.