The Conference USA race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 3 · 2025
12 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 3; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville State | 1–0 | 1–1 | 7.0–1.0 | 86% | 65% | 18% |
 Western Kentucky | 1–0 | 2–1 | 4.5–3.5 | 15% | 4% | <1% |
 Liberty | 0–1 | 1–1 | 5.0–3.0 | 28% | 11% | 1% |
 Sam Houston | 0–1 | 0–3 | 3.0–5.0 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Delaware | 0–0 | 1–1 | 4.8–3.2 | 23% | 8% | <1% |
 Louisiana Tech | 0–0 | 1–1 | 4.6–3.4 | 17% | 5% | <1% |
 Missouri State | 0–0 | 1–1 | 4.4–3.6 | 13% | 3% | <1% |
 Florida International | 0–0 | 1–1 | 3.9–4.1 | 10% | 3% | <1% |
 New Mexico State | 0–0 | 2–0 | 3.3–4.7 | 3% | <1% | 0% |
 UTEP | 0–0 | 1–1 | 2.6–5.4 | 2% | <1% | 0% |
 Kennesaw State | 0–0 | 0–2 | 2.7–5.3 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 Middle Tennessee | 0–0 | 0–2 | 2.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.