The Conference USA race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 14 · 2025
4 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 14; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville State | 6–1 | 7–4 | 6.7–1.3 | 81% | 53% | <1% |
 Kennesaw State | 6–1 | 8–3 | 6.3–1.7 | 81% | 29% | 0% |
 Western Kentucky | 6–1 | 8–3 | 6.3–1.7 | 27% | 13% | 0% |
 Missouri State | 5–2 | 7–4 | 5.6–2.4 | 11% | 5% | 0% |
 Florida International | 4–3 | 6–5 | 4.8–3.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Louisiana Tech | 4–3 | 6–5 | 4.4–3.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Delaware | 3–4 | 5–6 | 3.7–4.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Liberty | 3–4 | 4–7 | 3.7–4.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 New Mexico State | 2–5 | 4–7 | 2.7–5.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Middle Tennessee | 1–6 | 2–9 | 1.3–6.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Sam Houston | 1–6 | 2–9 | 1.2–6.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UTEP | 1–6 | 2–9 | 1.3–6.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.