The Conference USA race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2025
12 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 4; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville State | 1–0 | 1–2 | 6.8–1.2 | 80% | 57% | 12% |
 Louisiana Tech | 1–0 | 2–1 | 5.5–2.5 | 36% | 14% | 1% |
 Western Kentucky | 1–0 | 2–1 | 4.5–3.5 | 13% | 4% | <1% |
 Liberty | 0–1 | 1–2 | 4.8–3.2 | 19% | 8% | <1% |
 Sam Houston | 0–1 | 0–3 | 3.0–5.0 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 New Mexico State | 0–1 | 2–1 | 2.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Delaware | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.7–3.3 | 22% | 9% | <1% |
 Florida International | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.0–4.0 | 12% | 3% | <1% |
 Missouri State | 0–0 | 1–2 | 4.3–3.7 | 11% | 3% | <1% |
 UTEP | 0–0 | 1–2 | 2.8–5.2 | 2% | <1% | 0% |
 Middle Tennessee | 0–0 | 1–2 | 2.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Kennesaw State | 0–0 | 1–2 | 2.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.