The Conference USA race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 13 · 2025
4 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 13; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville State | 6–0 | 7–3 | 7.4–0.6 | 91% | 60% | <1% |
 Western Kentucky | 6–1 | 8–2 | 6.2–1.8 | 31% | 13% | <1% |
 Kennesaw State | 5–1 | 7–3 | 5.9–2.1 | 53% | 17% | <1% |
 Missouri State | 5–1 | 7–3 | 6.0–2.0 | 26% | 10% | <1% |
 Florida International | 3–3 | 5–5 | 4.1–3.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Liberty | 3–3 | 4–6 | 4.2–3.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Louisiana Tech | 3–3 | 5–5 | 3.9–4.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Delaware | 3–4 | 5–5 | 3.8–4.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 New Mexico State | 1–5 | 3–7 | 2.0–6.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Sam Houston | 1–5 | 2–8 | 1.6–6.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UTEP | 1–5 | 2–8 | 1.9–6.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Middle Tennessee | 0–6 | 1–9 | 1.0–7.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 13, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 13). How the model works.