The Mid-American race
13 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 13 · 2025
7 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 13; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Western Michigan | 5–1 | 6–4 | 6.1–1.9 | 63% | 20% | <1% |
 Toledo | 4–2 | 6–4 | 5.8–2.2 | 62% | 48% | 5% |
 Miami (OH) | 4–2 | 5–5 | 5.5–2.5 | 46% | 19% | <1% |
 Ohio | 4–2 | 6–4 | 5.7–2.3 | 17% | 10% | <1% |
 Central Michigan | 4–2 | 6–4 | 5.0–3.0 | 6% | 2% | 0% |
 Buffalo | 4–2 | 5–5 | 4.7–3.3 | 6% | 1% | 0% |
 Ball State | 3–3 | 4–6 | 3.1–4.9 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Kent State | 3–3 | 4–6 | 3.3–4.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Akron | 3–4 | 4–7 | 3.2–4.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Eastern Michigan | 3–4 | 4–7 | 3.4–4.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Northern Illinois | 2–4 | 3–7 | 3.4–4.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Bowling Green | 1–5 | 3–7 | 2.7–5.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Massachusetts | 0–6 | 0–10 | 0.1–7.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 13, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 13). How the model works.