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Toledo Rockets

6–4 · 4–2 MID-AMERICAN
In the books
WEEK 13 · 2025
62%
MAC title game
48%
Win the MAC
5%
Make the playoff
0%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.8
How the week went: playoff odds 5% → <1% · title-game odds 62% → 17%.
Playoff odds by week
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If Toledo wins out: 61% to win the MAC, 6% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Toledo's path
Your game
…
… · ESPN+
Ball State at Toledo

Your game. Beat Ball State and your playoff odds are 5%; lose and they drop to 0%. A loss ends it.

Final · Ball State 9–38 ToledoWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN2
Western Michigan at Northern Illinois

Mid-American race: Western Michigan losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Northern Illinois — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Western Michigan 35–19 Northern IllinoisWent the other way ✗
Root for Northern Illinois+32.4 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN2
Miami (OH) at Buffalo

Mid-American race: Miami (OH) losing helps your spot in the standings; you already beat Miami (OH); them losing again keeps them behind you.

Final · Miami (OH) 37–20 BuffaloWent the other way ✗
Root for Buffalo+30.1 pp title-game odds
…
… · CBSSN
Massachusetts at Ohio

Mid-American race: Ohio losing helps your spot in the standings.

Final · Massachusetts 14–42 OhioWent the other way ✗
Root for Massachusetts+8.3 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPNU
Central Michigan at Kent State

Mid-American race: Central Michigan losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Kent State — their wins make your résumé stronger; you still play Central Michigan in week 14.

Final · Central Michigan 28–16 Kent StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Kent State+4.6 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN+
Washington State at James Madison

Washington State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Washington State 20–24 James MadisonWent the other way ✗
Root for Washington State+2.8 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPNU
North Texas at Rice

Rice winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · North Texas 56–24 RiceWent the other way ✗
Root for Rice+1.9 pp playoff odds
53 more games that don't move your needle
Akron at Bowling Green · ESPNU
Louisiana at Arkansas State · ESPN
Florida State at NC State · ESPN
Hawai'i at UNLV · FS1
Missouri at Oklahoma · ABC
Minnesota at Northwestern · BTN
Rutgers at Ohio State · FOX
Louisville at SMU · ESPN2
Miami at Virginia Tech · ESPN
Delaware at Wake Forest · ACC Network
Kansas at Iowa State · FS1
Tulsa at Army · CBSSN
Charlotte at Georgia · SEC Network
Baylor at Arizona · TNT
Old Dominion at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Missouri State at Kennesaw State · ESPN+
Nevada at Wyoming
Marshall at App State · ESPN+
UConn at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Liberty at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+
Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
New Mexico State at UTEP · ESPN+
South Florida at UAB · ESPN+
Arkansas at Texas · ABC
Kentucky at Vanderbilt · ESPN
USC at Oregon · CBS
Michigan State at Iowa · FS1
Duke at North Carolina · ACC Network
Syracuse at Notre Dame · NBC
Jacksonville State at Florida International · CBSSN
Southern Miss at South Alabama · ESPN+
East Carolina at UTSA · ESPN+
Tulane at Temple · ESPNU
Michigan at Maryland · BTN
TCU at Houston · FOX
Oklahoma State at UCF · ESPN+
Kansas State at Utah · ESPN2
Georgia State at Troy · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at South Carolina · SEC Network
UL Monroe at Texas State · ESPN+
Nebraska at Penn State · NBC
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech · ESPN
New Mexico at Air Force · CBSSN
Colorado State at Boise State · FS1
Tennessee at Florida · ABC
Illinois at Wisconsin · BTN
California at Stanford · ACC Network
Western Kentucky at LSU · SEC Network
BYU at Cincinnati · FOX
Arizona State at Colorado · ESPN2
Washington at UCLA · NBC
Utah State at Fresno State · CBSSN
San José State at San Diego State · FS1

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 13, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 13). How the model works.