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Toledo Rockets

4–3 · 2–2 MID-AMERICAN
In the books
WEEK 9 · 2025
19%
MAC title game
12%
Win the MAC
1%
Make the playoff
0%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.6
How the week went: playoff odds 1% → <1% · title-game odds 19% → 22%.
Playoff odds by week
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If Toledo wins out: 29% to win the MAC, 4% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Toledo's path
Your game
…
… · The CW Network
Toledo at Washington State

Your game. Beat Washington State and your playoff odds are 2%; lose and they drop to <1%. A loss ends it.

Final · Toledo 7–28 Washington StateWent the other way ✗
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN+
Akron at Buffalo

Mid-American race: Buffalo losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Akron — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Akron 24–16 BuffaloWish granted ✓
Root for Akron+9.0 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · CBSSN
Ohio at Eastern Michigan

Mid-American race: Ohio losing helps your spot in the standings.

Final · Ohio 28–21 Eastern MichiganWent the other way ✗
Root for Eastern Michigan+5.8 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Kent State

Mid-American race: Bowling Green losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Kent State — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Bowling Green 21–24 Kent StateWish granted ✓
Root for Kent State+3.2 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN+
Western Michigan at Miami (OH)

Mid-American race: Western Michigan losing helps your spot in the standings; Western Michigan losing softens the sting of your loss to them; Miami (OH) visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.

Final · Western Michigan 17–26 Miami (OH)Wish granted ✓
Root for Miami (OH)+3.0 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN+
Massachusetts at Central Michigan

Mid-American race: Massachusetts losing helps your spot in the standings; Central Michigan visits your schedule in week 14 — keep them ranked.

Final · Massachusetts 13–38 Central MichiganWish granted ✓
Root for Central Michigan+2.9 pp title-game odds
47 more games that don't move your needle
Kennesaw State at Florida International · ESPNU
Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN
Middle Tennessee at Delaware · ESPN2
Missouri State at New Mexico State · CBSSN
South Alabama at Georgia State · ESPN2
North Texas at Charlotte · ESPN2
California at Virginia Tech · ESPN
Boise State at Nevada · CBSSN
Ole Miss at Oklahoma · ABC
Northwestern at Nebraska · FS1
Rutgers at Purdue · BTN
UCLA at Indiana · FOX
SMU at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Syracuse at Georgia Tech · ESPN
Virginia at North Carolina · ACC Network
Kansas State at Kansas · TNT
App State at Old Dominion · ESPNU
South Florida at Memphis · ESPN2
Auburn at Arkansas · SEC Network
UConn at Rice · ESPN+
Utah State at New Mexico
Alabama at South Carolina · ABC
Missouri at Vanderbilt · ESPN
Illinois at Washington · BTN
Minnesota at Iowa · CBS
NC State at Pittsburgh · ACC Network
BYU at Iowa State · FOX
San Diego State at Fresno State · FS1
UL Monroe at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Florida Atlantic at Navy · CBSSN
Temple at Tulsa · ESPN+
Ball State at Northern Illinois · ESPN+
Baylor at Cincinnati · ESPN2
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech · ESPNU
Texas at Mississippi State · SEC Network
TCU at West Virginia · ESPN+
Wisconsin at Oregon · FS1
Stanford at Miami · ESPN
Georgia Southern at Arkansas State · ESPN+
Louisiana at Troy · ESPN+
Texas A&M at LSU · ABC
Michigan at Michigan State · NBC
Boston College at Louisville · ACC Network
Colorado State at Wyoming · CBSSN
Tennessee at Kentucky · SEC Network
Houston at Arizona State · ESPN2
Colorado at Utah · ESPN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 9). How the model works.