Toledo Rockets
5–4 · 3–2 MID-AMERICAN
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
28%
MAC title game
16%
Win the MAC
<1%
Make the playoff
0%
First-round bye
avg seed 12.0
How the week went: playoff odds <1% → <1% · title-game odds 28% → 62%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Toledo's pathYour game
…
… · ESPN2
Toledo at Miami (OH)
Your game. Win and your Mid-American title-game odds are 47%; lose and they fall to <1%.
Final · Toledo 24–3 Miami (OH)Wish granted ✓
Just win
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN2
Ohio at Western Michigan
Mid-American race: Western Michigan losing helps your spot in the standings; Western Michigan losing softens the sting of your loss to them.
Final · Ohio 13–17 Western MichiganWent the other way ✗
Root for Ohio+6.2 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts
Mid-American race: Massachusetts losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Northern Illinois — their wins make your résumé stronger.
Final · Northern Illinois 45–3 MassachusettsWish granted ✓
Root for Northern Illinois+4.3 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Ball State
Mid-American race: Eastern Michigan losing helps your spot in the standings; Ball State visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.
Final · Eastern Michigan 24–9 Ball StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Ball State+2.8 pp title-game odds
54 more games that don't move your needle
Kent State at Akron · ESPNU
Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN
Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN
Clemson at Louisville · ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon · FOX
South Carolina at Texas A&M · ESPN
Wisconsin at Indiana · BTN
Michigan at Northwestern · FOX
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh · ABC
Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Air Force at UConn · CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+
South Florida at Navy · ESPN2
Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV
Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+
North Texas at UAB · ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Oklahoma at Alabama · ABC
Penn State at Michigan State · CBS
Maryland at Illinois · FS1
Iowa at USC · BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network
Virginia at Duke · ESPN2
NC State at Miami · ESPN
UCF at Texas Tech · FOX
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
San José State at Nevada · CBSSN
App State at James Madison · ESPN+
South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Florida at Ole Miss · ESPN
Purdue at Washington · FS1
Utah at Baylor · ESPN2
Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN
Texas at Georgia · ABC
UCLA at Ohio State · NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network
TCU at BYU · ESPN
Boise State at San Diego State · CBSSN
Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12).