The CFP race

8Miami5–168%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Georgia Tech7–046%

→

1Ohio State7–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Oregon6–1>99%

First round · at the 5 seed

12South Florida6–134%

→

4Georgia6–1>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Texas A&M7–0>99%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Texas Tech6–142%

→

3Alabama6–1>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Ole Miss6–197%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Notre Dame5–292%

→

2Indiana7–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#9Miami5–1 · ACC▼ −31pp68%

#7Georgia Tech7–0 · ACC▲ +39pp46%

#14Texas Tech6–1 · Big 12▼ −33pp42%

#18South Florida6–1 · American Athletic▲ +13pp34%

James Madison6–1 · Sun Belt▲ +26pp34%

Boise State5–2 · Mountain West▲ +14pp30%

SMU5–2 · ACC▲ +13pp24%

#11BYU7–0 · Big 12▲ +7pp19%

#19Louisville5–1 · ACC▲ +10pp17%

#10Vanderbilt6–1 · SEC▲ +15pp16%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 9).