🏈 Fan Watch

The CFP race

playoff chances, the bubble, and the games that move it
In the books
WEEK 16 · 2025
9 teams on the bubble entering week 16.

CFP chances

12 teams with the highest individual playoff chances. This is not a projected field or bracket.

Bubble watch

15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement
#7Texas A&M11–1 · SEC▲ +1pp63%
#8Oklahoma10–2 · SEC▲ +1pp58%
#9Alabama10–3 · SEC▼ −3pp54%
#10Miami10–2 · ACC▲ +10pp52%
#11Notre Dame10–2 · FBS Independents▼ −14pp39%
#12BYU11–2 · Big 12▼ −12pp35%
#13Texas9–3 · SEC▼ −9pp30%
#14Vanderbilt10–2 · SEC▲ +1pp20%
#15Utah10–2 · Big 1216%

Games of the week

ranked by playoff probability in play across the country
…
… · CBS
Final · Army 16–17 Navy
Conference races:ACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big TenConference USAMid-AmericanMountain WestSECSun Belt

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 16, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 16). How the model works.