The CFP race
playoff chances, the bubble, and the games that move it
In the books
WEEK 16 · 2025
9 teams on the bubble entering week 16.
CFP chances
12 teams with the highest individual playoff chances. This is not a projected field or bracket.
TeamMake CFP
#3Georgia12–1100%
#1Indiana13–0100%
#4Texas Tech12–1100%
#2Ohio State12–1>99%
#5Oregon11–199%
#20Tulane11–297%
#6Ole Miss11–197%
#24James Madison12–187%
#7Texas A&M11–163%
#8Oklahoma10–258%
#9Alabama10–354%
#10Miami10–252%Bubble watch
15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movementGames of the week
ranked by playoff probability in play across the countryBased on 50,000 season simulations entering week 16, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 16). How the model works.






