The CFP race
the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it
In the books
WEEK 8 · 2025
6 teams on the bubble entering week 8.
The bracket as of today
12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes
→
1
Ohio State6–0100%
Ohio State6–0100%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9
→
4
Alabama5–198%
Alabama5–198%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12
→
3
Miami5–0>99%
Miami5–0>99%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11
→
2
Indiana6–0>99%
Indiana6–0>99%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10
Bubble watch
15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement
Games of the week
ranked by playoff probability in play across the country…
… · FOX
41 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ESPN
Louisville at #2 Miami
Final · Louisville 24–21 Miami
61 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ABC
#10 LSU at #17 Vanderbilt
Final · LSU 24–31 Vanderbilt
34 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · NBC
#20 USC at #13 Notre Dame
Final · USC 24–34 Notre Dame
46 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · FOX
#7 Texas Tech at Arizona State
Final · Texas Tech 22–26 Arizona State
55 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ABC
#11 Tennessee at #6 Alabama
Final · Tennessee 20–37 Alabama
28 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ESPN2
#22 Memphis at UAB
Final · Memphis 24–31 UAB
41 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ABC
#5 Ole Miss at #9 Georgia
Final · Ole Miss 35–43 Georgia
8 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ESPN
#12 Georgia Tech at Duke
Final · Georgia Tech 27–18 Duke
27 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ESPN
#4 Texas A&M at Arkansas
Final · Texas A&M 45–42 Arkansas
21 ppplayoff odds in play
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 8, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 8).