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#22Memphis Tigers

6–0 · 2–0 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 8 · 2025
76%
American title game
51%
Win the American
37%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 10.6
How the week went: playoff odds 37% → 11% · title-game odds 76% → 30%.
Playoff odds by week
12345678

If Memphis wins out: 70% to win the American, 64% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Memphis's path
Your game
…
… · ESPN2
#22 Memphis at UAB

Your game. Beat UAB and your playoff odds are 39%; lose and they drop to 18%.

Final · Memphis 24–31 UABWent the other way ✗
Just win
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPNU
Army at Tulane

American Athletic race: Tulane losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play Tulane in week 11.

Final · Army 17–24 TulaneWent the other way ✗
Root for Army+5.2 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at #19 South Florida

American Athletic race: South Florida losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Florida Atlantic — their wins make your résumé stronger; you still play South Florida in week 9.

Final · Florida Atlantic 13–48 South FloridaWent the other way ✗
Root for Florida Atlantic+3.5 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPNU
Old Dominion at James Madison

Old Dominion winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Old Dominion 27–63 James MadisonWent the other way ✗
Root for Old Dominion+1.8 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
Tulsa at East Carolina

American Athletic race: East Carolina losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Tulsa — their wins make your résumé stronger; you still play East Carolina in week 12.

Final · Tulsa 27–41 East CarolinaWent the other way ✗
Root for Tulsa+2.7 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN+
UTSA at North Texas

American Athletic race: North Texas losing helps your spot in the standings.

Final · UTSA 17–55 North TexasWent the other way ✗
Root for UTSA+2.4 pp title-game odds
…
…
Hawai'i at Colorado State

Hawai'i winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Hawai'i 31–19 Colorado StateWish granted ✓
Root for Hawai'i+1.2 pp playoff odds
52 more games that don't move your needle
New Mexico State at Liberty · CBSSN
Arkansas State at South Alabama · ESPN2
Florida International at Western Kentucky · ESPNU
Delaware at Jacksonville State · ESPN2
UTEP at Sam Houston · CBSSN
Louisville at Miami · ESPN
Nebraska at Minnesota · FOX
San José State at Utah State · CBSSN
North Carolina at California · ESPN
LSU at Vanderbilt · ABC
Washington at Michigan · FOX
Georgia Tech at Duke · ESPN
UConn at Boston College · ACC Network
Arizona at Houston · FS1
Baylor at TCU · ESPN2
Central Michigan at Bowling Green · CBSSN
Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH) · ESPN+
Oklahoma at South Carolina · SEC Network
West Virginia at UCF · TNT
Kent State at Toledo · ESPN+
Buffalo at Massachusetts · ESPN+
Purdue at Northwestern · BTN
Troy at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Texas A&M at Arkansas · ESPN
Ole Miss at Georgia · ABC
Ohio State at Wisconsin · CBS
Michigan State at Indiana · Peacock
SMU at Clemson · ACC Network
Wyoming at Air Force · CBSSN
UNLV at Boise State · FS1
Coastal Carolina at App State · ESPN+
Texas State at Marshall · ESPN+
Temple at Charlotte · ESPN+
Akron at Ball State · ESPN+
Northern Illinois at Ohio · ESPN+
Texas Tech at Arizona State · FOX
Mississippi State at Florida · SEC Network
Southern Miss at Louisiana · ESPN+
Oregon at Rutgers · BTN
Washington State at Virginia · The CW Network
Texas at Kentucky · ESPN
Penn State at Iowa · Peacock
Maryland at UCLA · FS1
Georgia State at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Tennessee at Alabama · ABC
USC at Notre Dame · NBC
Pittsburgh at Syracuse · ACC Network
Missouri at Auburn · SEC Network
Utah at BYU · FOX
Cincinnati at Oklahoma State · ESPN2
Nevada at New Mexico · FS1
Florida State at Stanford · ESPN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 8, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 8). How the model works.