The CFP race

12 teams with the highest individual playoff chances. This is not a projected field or bracket.

TeamMake CFP

#1Ohio State5–0>99%#3Oregon5–089%#4Ole Miss5–086%#2Miami5–083%#7Indiana5–078%#8Alabama4–177%#16Notre Dame3–265%#10Georgia4–164%#5Texas A&M5–057%#9Texas Tech5–051%#6Oklahoma5–050%#23Memphis6–033%

#2Miami5–0 · ACC▲ +8pp83%

#7Indiana5–0 · Big Ten▲ +3pp78%

#8Alabama4–1 · SEC▲ +23pp77%

#16Notre Dame3–2 · FBS Independents▲ +5pp65%

#10Georgia4–1 · SEC▲ +3pp64%

#5Texas A&M5–0 · SEC▲ +14pp57%

#9Texas Tech5–0 · Big 12▲ +20pp51%

#6Oklahoma5–0 · SEC▲ +6pp50%

#23Memphis6–0 · American Athletic▲ +9pp33%

#12Tennessee4–1 · SEC▲ +16pp30%

Penn State3–2 · Big Ten▼ −64pp22%

#11LSU4–1 · SEC▲ +6pp21%

#21Arizona State4–1 · Big 12▲ +1pp21%

#15Michigan4–1 · Big Ten▲ +4pp19%

Boise State3–2 · Mountain West▼ −1pp16%

Texas3–2 · SEC▼ −58pp15%

…

… · ABC

#8Alabamaat#14Missouri

Final · #8 Alabama 27–24 #14 Missouri

…

… · CBS

#7Indianaat#3Oregon

Final · #7 Indiana 30–20 #3 Oregon

…

… · Peacock

NC Stateat#16Notre Dame

Final · NC State 7–36 #16 Notre Dame

…

… · ABC

#6OklahomaatTexas

Final · #6 Oklahoma 6–23 Texas

…

… · FOX

Kansasat#9Texas Tech

Final · Kansas 17–42 #9 Texas Tech

…

… · ESPN

Floridaat#5Texas A&M

Final · Florida 17–34 #5 Texas A&M

…

… · ABC

#10GeorgiaatAuburn

Final · #10 Georgia 20–10 Auburn

…

… · NBC

#15MichiganatUSC

Final · #15 Michigan 13–31 USC

…

… · ESPN

#21Arizona StateatUtah

Final · #21 Arizona State 10–42 Utah

…

… · SEC Network

Arkansasat#12Tennessee

Final · Arkansas 31–34 #12 Tennessee

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 7, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 7). How the model works.