The American Athletic race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 7 · 2025
12 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 7; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #23Memphis | 2–0 | 6–0 | 6.8–1.2 | 73% | 49% | 33% |
 North Texas | 1–0 | 5–0 | 6.7–1.3 | 51% | 23% | 10% |
 Tulane | 1–0 | 4–1 | 5.7–2.3 | 22% | 9% | 3% |
 East Carolina | 1–0 | 3–2 | 5.7–2.3 | 19% | 7% | 2% |
 Navy | 3–0 | 5–0 | 5.8–2.2 | 20% | 7% | 2% |
 #24South Florida | 1–0 | 4–1 | 5.0–3.0 | 13% | 4% | 4% |
 Temple | 1–0 | 3–2 | 2.9–5.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Florida Atlantic | 1–1 | 2–3 | 2.8–5.2 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Army | 1–2 | 2–3 | 4.7–3.3 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 Rice | 1–2 | 3–3 | 2.2–5.8 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 UTSA | 0–1 | 2–3 | 3.7–4.3 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Charlotte | 0–2 | 1–4 | 1.0–7.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Tulsa | 0–3 | 2–4 | 1.0–7.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UAB | 0–2 | 2–3 | 2.1–5.9 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 7, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 7). How the model works.