The CFP race

8Texas A&M11–162%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Oklahoma10–257%

→

1Ohio State12–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Oregon11–197%

First round · at the 5 seed

12North Texas11–160%

→

4Texas Tech11–196%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Ole Miss11–190%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Virginia10–253%

→

3Georgia11–1>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Alabama10–257%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Notre Dame10–253%

→

2Indiana12–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#7Texas A&M11–1 · SEC▼ −38pp62%

#24North Texas11–1 · American Athletic▲ +20pp60%

#8Oklahoma10–2 · SEC▼ −8pp57%

#9Alabama10–2 · SEC▼ −2pp57%

#10Notre Dame10–2 · FBS Independents▼ −14pp53%

#17Virginia10–2 · ACC▲ +30pp53%

#11BYU11–1 · Big 12▲ +13pp47%

#25James Madison11–1 · Sun Belt▲ +11pp43%

#12Miami10–2 · ACC▲ +8pp42%

#13Texas9–3 · SEC▲ +19pp39%

#20Tulane10–2 · American Athletic▲ +5pp27%

#14Vanderbilt10–2 · SEC▼ −5pp19%

#15Utah10–2 · Big 12▼ −13pp15%

No game this week moves the national race.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 15, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 15). How the model works.