The CFP race

8Ole Miss1–053%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Texas0–160%

→

1Penn State1–098%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Miami1–051%

First round · at the 5 seed

12USC1–025%

→

4Notre Dame0–197%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6LSU1–058%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Arizona State1–024%

→

3Georgia1–096%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Oregon1–060%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Clemson0–128%

→

2Ohio State1–098%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#6Oregon1–0 · Big Ten▲ +1pp60%

#7Texas0–1 · SEC▼ −28pp60%

#3LSU1–0 · SEC▲ +34pp58%

#20Ole Miss1–0 · SEC▼ −2pp53%

#5Miami1–0 · ACC▲ +16pp51%

#8Clemson0–1 · ACC▼ −10pp28%

USC1–0 · Big Ten▼ −2pp25%

#12Arizona State1–0 · Big 1224%

#10South Carolina1–0 · SEC▲ +5pp24%

#15Michigan1–0 · Big Ten▼ −1pp24%

#17SMU1–0 · ACC23%

#22Tennessee1–0 · SEC22%

TCU1–0 · Big 1219%

#23Indiana1–0 · Big Ten▼ −4pp19%

Jacksonville State0–1 · Conference USA18%

#21Alabama0–1 · SEC▼ −16pp17%

Louisville1–0 · ACC17%

UNLV2–0 · Mountain West16%

Tulane1–0 · American Athletic16%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 2, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 2). How the model works.