The CFP race

8Miami1–071%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Ole Miss1–081%

→

1Penn State1–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5LSU1–092%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Tulane1–020%

→

4Notre Dame0–1100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Oregon1–090%

First round · at the 6 seed

11South Carolina1–021%

→

3Georgia1–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Texas0–191%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Clemson0–125%

→

2Ohio State1–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#20Ole Miss1–0 · SEC▼ −7pp81%

#5Miami1–0 · ACC▲ +39pp71%

#8Clemson0–1 · ACC▼ −32pp25%

#10South Carolina1–0 · SEC▲ +8pp21%

Tulane1–0 · American Athletic▲ +1pp20%

#17SMU1–0 · ACC▼ −1pp19%

#12Arizona State1–0 · Big 1219%

TCU1–0 · Big 1218%

Jacksonville State0–1 · Conference USA18%

UNLV2–0 · Mountain West17%

Louisville1–0 · ACC17%

USC1–0 · Big Ten▼ −7pp16%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 2, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 2).