The CFP race

12 teams with the highest individual playoff chances. This is not a projected field or bracket.

TeamMake CFP

#3Penn State3–096%#1Ohio State3–096%#5Georgia3–089%#2Miami4–085%#6Oregon4–084%#22Notre Dame1–261%#10Texas3–160%#11Indiana4–055%#13Ole Miss4–052%#4LSU4–045%#7Oklahoma4–037%#17Alabama2–134%

#6Oregon4–0 · Big Ten▲ +3pp84%

#22Notre Dame1–2 · FBS Independents▼ −12pp61%

#10Texas3–1 · SEC▲ +2pp60%

#11Indiana4–0 · Big Ten▲ +31pp55%

#13Ole Miss4–0 · SEC▲ +5pp52%

#4LSU4–0 · SEC▼ −9pp45%

#7Oklahoma4–0 · SEC▲ +15pp37%

#17Alabama2–1 · SEC▼ −10pp34%

#9Texas A&M3–0 · SEC▲ +7pp33%

#12Texas Tech4–0 · Big 12▲ +17pp32%

Memphis4–0 · American Athletic▲ +1pp20%

Arizona State3–1 · Big 12▼ −1pp19%

#8Florida State3–0 · ACC▲ +14pp19%

#15Tennessee3–1 · SEC▼ −1pp19%

Louisville3–0 · ACC▲ +1pp18%

#19Michigan3–1 · Big Ten▼ −4pp17%

#24TCU3–0 · Big 12▼ −2pp17%

#21USC4–0 · Big Ten▼ −3pp16%

…

… · ABC

#4LSUat#13Ole Miss

Final · #4 LSU 19–24 #13 Ole Miss

…

… · ABC

#17Alabamaat#5Georgia

Final · #17 Alabama 24–21 #5 Georgia

…

… · ABC

#22Notre DameatArkansas

Final · #22 Notre Dame 56–13 Arkansas

…

… · Peacock

#11IndianaatIowa

Final · #11 Indiana 20–15 Iowa

…

… · FOX

#24TCUatArizona State

Final · #24 TCU 24–27 Arizona State

…

… · NBC

#6Oregonat#3Penn State

Final · #6 Oregon 30–24 #3 Penn State

…

… · FOX

#21USCat#23Illinois

Final · #21 USC 32–34 #23 Illinois

…

… · ESPN

Auburnat#9Texas A&M

Final · Auburn 10–16 #9 Texas A&M

…

… · ESPN

#25BYUatColorado

Final · #25 BYU 24–21 Colorado

…

… · ESPN

#8Florida StateatVirginia

Final · #8 Florida State 38–46 Virginia

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.