The CFP race

8Indiana4–055%

First round · at the 8 seed

9LSU4–045%

→

1Penn State3–096%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Oregon4–084%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Notre Dame1–261%

→

4Georgia3–089%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Texas3–160%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Oklahoma4–037%

→

3Miami4–085%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Ole Miss4–052%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Alabama2–134%

→

2Ohio State3–096%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#6Oregon4–0 · Big Ten▲ +3pp84%

#22Notre Dame1–2 · FBS Independents▼ −12pp61%

#10Texas3–1 · SEC▲ +2pp60%

#11Indiana4–0 · Big Ten▲ +31pp55%

#13Ole Miss4–0 · SEC▲ +5pp52%

#4LSU4–0 · SEC▼ −9pp45%

#7Oklahoma4–0 · SEC▲ +15pp37%

#17Alabama2–1 · SEC▼ −10pp34%

#9Texas A&M3–0 · SEC▲ +7pp33%

#12Texas Tech4–0 · Big 12▲ +17pp32%

Memphis4–0 · American Athletic▲ +1pp20%

Arizona State3–1 · Big 12▼ −1pp19%

#8Florida State3–0 · ACC▲ +14pp19%

#15Tennessee3–1 · SEC▼ −1pp19%

Louisville3–0 · ACC▲ +1pp18%

#19Michigan3–1 · Big Ten▼ −4pp17%

#24TCU3–0 · Big 12▼ −2pp17%

#21USC4–0 · Big Ten▼ −3pp16%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.