#22Notre Dame Fighting Irish
1–2 · 0–0 FBS INDEPENDENTS
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2025
0%
Independent title game
0%
Win the Independent
61%
Make the playoff
6%
First-round bye
avg seed 7.4
The FBS Independents title is out of reach — the playoff path runs through an at-large bid.
How the week went: playoff odds 61% → 60%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Notre Dame's pathYour game
…
… · ABC
#22 Notre Dame at Arkansas
Your game. Beat Arkansas and your playoff odds are 65%; lose and they drop to 26%.
Final · Notre Dame 56–13 ArkansasWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPNU
Massachusetts at #20 Missouri
Missouri winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · Massachusetts 6–42 MissouriWish granted ✓
Root for Missouri+6.7 pp playoff odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · Peacock
#11 Indiana at Iowa
Iowa winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · Indiana 20–15 IowaWent the other way ✗
Root for Iowa+1.8 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
Auburn at #9 Texas A&M
Texas A&M losing softens the sting of your loss to them.
Final · Auburn 10–16 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗
Root for Auburn+1.5 pp playoff odds
…
… · The CW Network
Virginia Tech at NC State
NC State visits your schedule in week 7 — keep them ranked.
Final · Virginia Tech 23–21 NC StateWent the other way ✗
Root for NC State+1.5 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN2
Louisville at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.
Final · Louisville 34–27 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Root for Pittsburgh+1.4 pp playoff odds
45 more games that don't move your needle
Ohio State at Washington · CBS
Army at East Carolina · ESPN
Florida State at Virginia · ESPN
TCU at Arizona State · FOX
Houston at Oregon State · ESPN
Rutgers at Minnesota · BTN
USC at Illinois · FOX
Duke at Syracuse · ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest · ESPN
Cincinnati at Kansas · TNT
UCF at Kansas State · FS1
South Alabama at North Texas · ESPNU
Bowling Green at Ohio · CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison · ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe · ESPN+
LSU at Ole Miss · ABC
UCLA at Northwestern · BTN
California at Boston College · ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State · ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia · FOX
UConn at Buffalo · ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois · ESPN+
Rice at Navy · CBSSN
Akron at Toledo · ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force · FS1
Tulane at Tulsa · ESPNU
Tennessee at Mississippi State · SEC Network
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State · ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Arizona at Iowa State · ESPN
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Missouri State · ESPN+
Memphis at Florida Atlantic · ESPN2
Alabama at Georgia · ABC
Oregon at Penn State · NBC
Washington State at Colorado State · CBSSN
San José State at Stanford · ACC Network
App State at Boise State · FS1
Kentucky at South Carolina · SEC Network
Marshall at Louisiana · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at UTEP · ESPN+
BYU at Colorado · ESPN
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.