#9Notre Dame Fighting Irish
7–2 · 0–0 FBS INDEPENDENTS
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
0%
Independent title game
0%
Win the Independent
70%
Make the playoff
6%
First-round bye
avg seed 7.4
The FBS Independents title is out of reach — the playoff path runs through an at-large bid.
How the week went: playoff odds 70% → 68%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Notre Dame's pathYour game
…
… · ABC
#9 Notre Dame at #22 Pittsburgh
Your game. Beat Pittsburgh and your playoff odds are 74%; lose and they drop to 18%.
Final · Notre Dame 37–15 PittsburghWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN
Florida at #7 Ole Miss
Florida winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · Florida 24–34 Ole MissWent the other way ✗
Root for Florida+5.1 pp playoff odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · FOX
Minnesota at #8 Oregon
Minnesota winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · Minnesota 13–42 OregonWent the other way ✗
Root for Minnesota+4.7 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN2
#13 Utah at Baylor
Baylor winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · Utah 55–28 BaylorWent the other way ✗
Root for Baylor+2.6 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
TCU at #12 BYU
TCU winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · TCU 13–44 BYUWent the other way ✗
Root for TCU+2.3 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
NC State at #15 Miami
You beat NC State — their wins make your résumé stronger.
Final · NC State 7–41 MiamiWent the other way ✗
Root for NC State+2.1 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
South Carolina at #3 Texas A&M
Texas A&M losing softens the sting of your loss to them.
Final · South Carolina 30–31 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗
Root for South Carolina+1.6 pp playoff odds
…
… · BTN
Wisconsin at #2 Indiana
You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Wisconsin winning protects it.
Final · Wisconsin 7–31 IndianaWent the other way ✗
Root for Wisconsin+3.0 pp first-round-bye odds
50 more games that don't move your needle
Iowa at USC · BTN
UCF at Texas Tech · FOX
Colorado State at New Mexico
Kent State at Akron · ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN
Clemson at Louisville · ESPN
Michigan at Northwestern · FOX
Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Air Force at UConn · CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+
South Florida at Navy · ESPN2
Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV
Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+
North Texas at UAB · ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+
Oklahoma at Alabama · ABC
Penn State at Michigan State · CBS
Maryland at Illinois · FS1
Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network
Virginia at Duke · ESPN2
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
San José State at Nevada · CBSSN
App State at James Madison · ESPN+
South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Purdue at Washington · FS1
Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN
Texas at Georgia · ABC
UCLA at Ohio State · NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network
Boise State at San Diego State · CBSSN
Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.