#12Notre Dame Fighting Irish

5–2 · 0–0 FBS INDEPENDENTS

In the books

WEEK 10 · 2025

The Week 10 recap

Notre Dame beat Boston College. Playoff odds moved from 71% to 71%.

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ESPN

Final

Notre Dame

Final · Notre Dame 25–10 Boston CollegeWish granted ✓

Boston College

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ESPN2

Impact 1

Georgia Tech

at

Rooted for

NC State

Final · Georgia Tech 36–48 NC StateWish granted ✓

Projected 2.8-point playoff boost

NC State won, making Notre Dame's earlier win over them look better.

Entering-week projection73% if NC State won70% with the other result2.8-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance

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ESPN

Impact 2

Rooted for

South Carolina

at

Ole Miss

Final · South Carolina 14–30 Ole MissWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.7-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection73% if South Carolina won71% with the other result2.7-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance

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ABC

Impact 3

Georgia

at

Rooted for

Florida

Final · Georgia 24–20 FloridaWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.8-point playoff boost

Georgia won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection72% if Florida won71% with the other result1.8-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance

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FOX

Impact 4

Penn State

at

Rooted for

Ohio State

Final · Penn State 14–38 Ohio StateWish granted ✓

Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

Ohio State won, thinning out the at-large competition for Notre Dame's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection71% if Ohio State won70% with the other result1.7-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance

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ABC

Impact 5

Rooted for

Oklahoma

at

Tennessee

Final · Oklahoma 33–27 TennesseeWish granted ✓

Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

Oklahoma won, thinning out the at-large competition for Notre Dame's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection72% if Oklahoma won70% with the other result1.7-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance

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ABC

Impact 6

Vanderbilt

at

Rooted for

Texas

Final · Vanderbilt 31–34 TexasWish granted ✓

Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

Texas won, thinning out the at-large competition for Notre Dame's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection71% if Texas won70% with the other result1.7-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance

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The CW Network

Impact 7

Louisville

at

Rooted for

Virginia Tech

Final · Louisville 28–16 Virginia TechWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

Louisville won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection72% if Virginia Tech won70% with the other result1.7-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance

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ESPN

Impact 8

Cincinnati

at

Rooted for

Utah

Final · Cincinnati 14–45 UtahWish granted ✓

Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Utah won, thinning out the at-large competition for Notre Dame's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection71% if Utah won69% with the other result1.6-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance

43 other games had little impact

USC at Nebraska · NBC

Virginia at California · ESPN2

Indiana at Maryland · CBS

UTEP at Kennesaw State · ESPNU

James Madison at Texas State · ESPN2

Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2

Florida International at Missouri State · CBSSN

Marshall at Coastal Carolina · ESPN2

Tulane at UTSA · ESPN

Memphis at Rice · ESPN2

North Carolina at Syracuse · ESPN

Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN

Rutgers at Illinois · NBC

Duke at Clemson · ACC Network

Miami at SMU · ESPN

UCF at Baylor · ESPNU

West Virginia at Houston · FS1

UAB at UConn · CBSSN

Army at Air Force · CBS

Navy at North Texas · ESPN2

Buffalo at Bowling Green · ESPN+

Arizona State at Iowa State · TNT

East Carolina at Temple · ESPN+

New Mexico at UNLV

Michigan State at Minnesota · BTN

Pittsburgh at Stanford · ACC Network

Texas Tech at Kansas State · FOX

Delaware at Liberty · CBSSN

New Mexico State at Western Kentucky · ESPN+

Fresno State at Boise State · FS1

Old Dominion at UL Monroe · ESPN+

Louisiana at South Alabama · ESPN+

Mississippi State at Arkansas · SEC Network

Oklahoma State at Kansas · ESPN+

Central Michigan at Western Michigan · ESPNU

Purdue at Michigan · BTN

Arizona at Colorado · FS1

Wyoming at San Diego State · CBSSN

Kentucky at Auburn · SEC Network

Washington State at Oregon State · CBS

Wake Forest at Florida State · ACC Network

Arkansas State at Troy · ESPNU

Hawai'i at San José State · CBSSN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.