The CFP race

8Alabama8–270%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Notre Dame8–298%

→

1Ohio State10–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Texas Tech10–1100%

First round · at the 5 seed

12James Madison9–169%

→

4Georgia9–1100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Ole Miss10–1>99%

First round · at the 6 seed

11SMU7–333%

→

3Texas A&M10–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Oregon9–198%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Oklahoma8–286%

→

2Indiana11–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#10Alabama8–2 · SEC▼ −30pp70%

James Madison9–1 · Sun Belt▲ +13pp69%

SMU7–3 · ACC▲ +4pp33%

#19Virginia9–2 · ACC▲ +20pp30%

#24Tulane8–2 · American Athletic▲ +23pp23%

#12Utah8–2 · Big 12▼ −3pp22%

#16Georgia Tech9–1 · ACC19%

#11BYU9–1 · Big 12▲ +7pp18%

North Texas9–1 · American Athletic▼ −3pp16%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 13, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 13).