The Mountain West race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 15 · 2025
The title game is set: UNLV vs Boise State.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 15; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UNLVClinched | 6–2 | 10–2 | 6.0–2.0 | 100% | 60% | 12% |
 Boise StateClinched | 6–2 | 8–4 | 6.0–2.0 | 100% | 40% | 3% |
 New Mexico | 6–2 | 9–3 | 6.0–2.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 San Diego State | 6–2 | 9–3 | 6.0–2.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Fresno State | 5–3 | 8–4 | 5.0–3.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Hawai'i | 5–3 | 8–4 | 5.0–3.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Utah State | 4–4 | 6–6 | 4.0–4.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Air Force | 3–5 | 4–8 | 3.0–5.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Nevada | 2–6 | 3–9 | 2.0–6.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 San José State | 2–6 | 3–9 | 2.0–6.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Wyoming | 2–6 | 4–8 | 2.0–6.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Colorado State | 1–7 | 2–10 | 1.0–7.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 15, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 15). How the model works.