The Mountain West race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 9 · 2025
10 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 9; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Boise State | 3–0 | 5–2 | 7.2–0.8 | 94% | 68% | 29% |
 San Diego State | 2–0 | 5–1 | 5.7–2.3 | 32% | 10% | 1% |
 Hawai'i | 3–1 | 6–2 | 4.5–3.5 | 6% | <1% | <1% |
 UNLV | 2–1 | 6–1 | 6.0–2.0 | 54% | 18% | 2% |
 Fresno State | 2–1 | 5–2 | 4.3–3.7 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
 Utah State | 2–1 | 4–3 | 3.9–4.1 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 San José State | 1–2 | 2–5 | 3.9–4.1 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
 New Mexico | 1–2 | 4–3 | 3.4–4.6 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
 Colorado State | 1–2 | 2–5 | 2.8–5.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Wyoming | 1–2 | 3–4 | 3.2–4.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Air Force | 1–4 | 2–5 | 2.3–5.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Nevada | 0–3 | 1–6 | 1.0–7.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 9). How the model works.