The Big 12 race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 9 · 2025
14 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 9; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #11BYU | 4–0 | 7–0 | 6.5–2.5 | 42% | 19% | 24% |
 #21Cincinnati | 4–0 | 6–1 | 6.3–2.7 | 25% | 8% | 7% |
 #14Texas Tech | 3–1 | 6–1 | 7.1–1.9 | 62% | 43% | 44% |
 #24Arizona State | 3–1 | 5–2 | 6.3–2.7 | 28% | 10% | 9% |
 Houston | 3–1 | 6–1 | 4.8–4.2 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Utah | 2–2 | 5–2 | 5.5–3.5 | 14% | 8% | 10% |
 TCU | 2–2 | 5–2 | 5.5–3.5 | 14% | 7% | 8% |
 Kansas State | 2–2 | 3–4 | 4.9–4.1 | 4% | 2% | 3% |
 Iowa State | 2–2 | 5–2 | 4.9–4.1 | 4% | 2% | 2% |
 Baylor | 2–2 | 4–3 | 4.6–4.4 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Kansas | 2–2 | 4–3 | 4.9–4.1 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Colorado | 1–3 | 3–4 | 3.6–5.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 UCF | 1–3 | 4–3 | 3.6–5.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Arizona | 1–3 | 4–3 | 2.5–6.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Oklahoma State | 0–4 | 1–6 | 0.2–8.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 West Virginia | 0–4 | 2–5 | 0.7–8.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 9). How the model works.