The Big 12 race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 16 · 2025
The title game is set: Texas Tech vs BYU.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 16; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #4Texas TechClinched | 8–1 | 12–1 | 8.0–1.0 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
 #12BYUClinched | 8–1 | 11–2 | 8.0–1.0 | 100% | 0% | 35% |
 #15Utah | 7–2 | 10–2 | 7.0–2.0 | 0% | 0% | 16% |
 #17Arizona | 6–3 | 9–3 | 6.0–3.0 | 0% | 0% | 12% |
 Arizona State | 6–3 | 8–4 | 6.0–3.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 #21Houston | 6–3 | 9–3 | 6.0–3.0 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
 Cincinnati | 5–4 | 7–5 | 5.0–4.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Iowa State | 5–4 | 8–4 | 5.0–4.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Kansas State | 5–4 | 6–6 | 5.0–4.0 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 TCU | 5–4 | 8–4 | 5.0–4.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Baylor | 3–6 | 5–7 | 3.0–6.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Kansas | 3–6 | 5–7 | 3.0–6.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UCF | 2–7 | 5–7 | 2.0–7.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 West Virginia | 2–7 | 4–8 | 2.0–7.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Colorado | 1–8 | 3–9 | 1.0–8.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Oklahoma State | 0–9 | 1–11 | 0.0–9.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 16, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 16). How the model works.