The Big 12 race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 6 · 2025
15 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 6; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #11Texas Tech | 1–0 | 4–0 | 6.7–2.3 | 44% | 26% | 31% |
 #25Arizona State | 2–0 | 4–1 | 6.7–2.3 | 45% | 23% | 20% |
 #23BYU | 1–0 | 4–0 | 6.0–3.0 | 28% | 14% | 14% |
 #14Iowa State | 2–0 | 5–0 | 5.9–3.1 | 24% | 10% | 12% |
 Cincinnati | 1–0 | 3–1 | 4.8–4.2 | 6% | 2% | <1% |
 Houston | 1–0 | 4–0 | 4.5–4.5 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
 Utah | 1–1 | 4–1 | 4.9–4.1 | 11% | 5% | 6% |
 Kansas State | 1–1 | 2–3 | 4.8–4.2 | 8% | 3% | 4% |
 Kansas | 1–1 | 3–2 | 5.0–4.0 | 6% | 3% | 3% |
 Baylor | 1–1 | 3–2 | 4.7–4.3 | 4% | 2% | 1% |
 TCU | 0–1 | 3–1 | 5.5–3.5 | 18% | 10% | 11% |
 UCF | 0–1 | 3–1 | 4.3–4.7 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Colorado | 0–2 | 2–3 | 3.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Arizona | 0–1 | 3–1 | 2.6–6.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Oklahoma State | 0–1 | 1–3 | 0.9–8.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 West Virginia | 0–2 | 2–3 | 1.1–7.9 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.