The Mountain West race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 6 · 2025
12 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 6; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Boise State | 1–0 | 3–1 | 6.4–1.6 | 72% | 44% | 17% |
 Fresno State | 1–0 | 4–1 | 5.5–2.5 | 26% | 10% | 1% |
 Utah State | 1–0 | 3–2 | 4.2–3.8 | 7% | 2% | <1% |
 Hawai'i | 1–1 | 4–2 | 3.0–5.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Air Force | 0–3 | 1–3 | 2.0–6.0 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 UNLV | 0–0 | 4–0 | 6.1–1.9 | 66% | 35% | 11% |
 San José State | 0–0 | 1–3 | 4.5–3.5 | 10% | 3% | <1% |
 San Diego State | 0–0 | 3–1 | 4.3–3.7 | 9% | 2% | <1% |
 New Mexico | 0–0 | 3–1 | 4.0–4.0 | 7% | 2% | <1% |
 Wyoming | 0–0 | 2–2 | 3.3–4.7 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Colorado State | 0–0 | 1–3 | 2.8–5.2 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 Nevada | 0–0 | 1–3 | 1.9–6.1 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.