The Mid-American race
13 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 6 · 2025
13 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 6; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ohio | 1–0 | 3–2 | 6.8–1.2 | 80% | 53% | 8% |
 Buffalo | 1–0 | 2–3 | 5.4–2.6 | 21% | 6% | <1% |
 Western Michigan | 1–0 | 2–3 | 4.3–3.7 | 6% | 1% | 0% |
 Central Michigan | 1–0 | 3–2 | 3.8–4.2 | 1% | <1% | 0% |
 Toledo | 1–1 | 3–2 | 5.7–2.3 | 28% | 15% | 2% |
 Bowling Green | 0–1 | 2–3 | 5.3–2.7 | 16% | 5% | <1% |
 Eastern Michigan | 0–1 | 1–4 | 2.2–5.8 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Akron | 0–1 | 1–4 | 2.2–5.8 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Kent State | 0–1 | 1–3 | 1.1–6.9 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Miami (OH) | 0–0 | 1–3 | 5.5–2.5 | 35% | 15% | <1% |
 Northern Illinois | 0–0 | 1–3 | 4.8–3.2 | 11% | 4% | <1% |
 Ball State | 0–0 | 1–3 | 2.6–5.4 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Massachusetts | 0–0 | 0–4 | 2.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.