The Mid-American race
13 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
10 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 11; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Miami (OH) | 4–0 | 5–3 | 6.2–1.8 | 65% | 28% | <1% |
 Buffalo | 4–1 | 5–4 | 5.4–2.6 | 29% | 9% | <1% |
 Western Michigan | 4–1 | 5–4 | 5.4–2.6 | 22% | 8% | <1% |
 Ohio | 3–1 | 5–3 | 6.1–1.9 | 64% | 45% | 5% |
 Central Michigan | 3–2 | 5–4 | 4.4–3.6 | 2% | <1% | 0% |
 Toledo | 2–2 | 4–4 | 5.0–3.0 | 18% | 9% | <1% |
 Ball State | 2–2 | 3–5 | 3.2–4.8 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Kent State | 2–2 | 3–5 | 2.9–5.1 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Akron | 2–3 | 3–6 | 3.7–4.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Northern Illinois | 1–3 | 2–6 | 3.5–4.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Bowling Green | 1–4 | 3–6 | 3.1–4.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Eastern Michigan | 1–4 | 2–7 | 2.6–5.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Massachusetts | 0–4 | 0–8 | 0.5–7.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.