The Mid-American race
13 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 9 · 2025
11 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 9; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Miami (OH) | 3–0 | 4–3 | 5.8–2.2 | 47% | 20% | <1% |
 Western Michigan | 3–0 | 4–3 | 5.5–2.5 | 32% | 12% | <1% |
 Buffalo | 3–0 | 4–3 | 5.7–2.3 | 31% | 10% | <1% |
 Ohio | 2–1 | 4–3 | 6.1–1.9 | 61% | 44% | 5% |
 Central Michigan | 2–1 | 4–3 | 4.4–3.6 | 4% | <1% | 0% |
 Ball State | 2–1 | 3–4 | 3.4–4.6 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Toledo | 2–2 | 4–3 | 5.2–2.8 | 19% | 12% | 1% |
 Bowling Green | 1–2 | 3–4 | 4.8–3.2 | 5% | 1% | 0% |
 Kent State | 1–2 | 2–5 | 2.1–5.9 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Eastern Michigan | 1–3 | 2–6 | 2.6–5.4 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Akron | 1–3 | 2–6 | 2.6–5.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Massachusetts | 0–3 | 0–7 | 0.7–7.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Northern Illinois | 0–3 | 1–6 | 3.2–4.8 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 9). How the model works.